This week will get off to a great start, with warm temperatures and sunny skies. However, more rain is on the way Tuesday night as the next low pressure system moves into the region.
Warm weather is expected in southern Manitoba today
The Week
Today will be a great day in southern Manitoba. High temperatures in the mid to upper twenties are expected with sunny skies. Winds will be light from the west. Today may end up being one of the nicer days this week, so enjoy it!
Tuesday will see temperatures in the mid twenties, but with increasing cloudiness through the day as a low pressure system begins moving into the region. Winds will be breezy out of the south-east at 20 km/h gusting to 40 km/h ahead of this system. Rain is expected to move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday night with this next system.
Wednesday will see rain ending from the aforementioned low pressure system. At this potential rainfall accumulations remain uncertain, so check back tomorrow for more details. Once the rain ends skies will remain mainly cloudy with temperatures in the upper teens. Winds will be from the north at 20-30 km/h.
Long Range
The long range forecast shows warmer weather returning late this week. Models are also hinting at our next risk of thunderstorms developing on Thursday and/or Friday with the approach of an upper trough moving in from western North America. We’ll have more details about this risk later in the week. Besides the thunderstorm risk, long range models generally show above seasonal temperatures for the remainder of June, although some cooler stretches are likely to be interspersed with the warmer ones.
Unfortunately for the water-logged fields of the southern Red River Valley and the many ruined plans of office workers just looking for a couple nice days to spend outside, more unsettled weather will be moving through the Red River Valley this weekend with another round of showers or thunderstorms rolling in on Saturday night into Sunday.
Today will start off with the remaining convection from overnight pushing off to the east of the Red River Valley, with the sun then coming out in the morning and quickly pushing our temperatures up into the high-20’s. Winnipeg will likely be within a few degrees of the daytime high of 29°C by lunch. The rain overnight helped bump up our dewpoints, so until drier air begins moving in from the west this afternoon it will feel quite humid outside with temperatures of 26-29°C feeling more like 33-36°C. Temperatures will cool off tonight thanks to the lower dewpoint values moving in to a low temperature near 12°C.
Saturday will bring mixed skies and cooler temperatures as north to northeasterly winds shunt off the warmer air in place today. There isn’t too much to mention at this point for Saturday, so enjoy it! Temperatures will dip to around 13°C on Saturday night with increasing cloud.
The NAM shows an area of rain tracking across the Red River Valley on Sunday morning.
Sunday will likely bring another bought of convective rainfall to the region. A shortwave riding over the Northern Plains will lift northeastwards into southern Manitoba on Sunday, spreading an area of rain ahead of it. There will be a risk of a thunderstorm associated with it, but at that point the risk looks small. Current indications are that the rain will start in the morning, be fairly intense, and end by midday with a widespread 10-15mm, however speed and timing may change between now and then. Temperatures will be cool with a high in the mid-teens and a low near 10°C. Winds will be moderate out of the southeast at 30-40km/h.
Heading into next week, it looks like things will finally settle a bit and we may get a stretch of warm, dry weather with daytime highs in the upper 20’s, overnight lows in the mid-teens or warmer, and little expected by way of widespread precipitation or significant storm threats.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
The first real notable surge of summer air is on the way for Winnipeg as a broad southerly flow develops ahead of a slow-moving low pressure system moving across Saskatchewan. This organized flow of southerly air will tap into Gulf moisture[1], bringing the first notably humid spell of 2016 to Winnipeg. Alongside the heat and humidity that will move in, there will be a threat of thunderstorm development across Southern Manitoba, of which severe storms are certainly possible.
Today marks the start of the summer surge moving into Southern Manitoba as light southerly winds develop over the Red River Valley and warmer air aloft begins to move into the region. Skies will partly cloudy to mixed through much of the day as temperatures climb to a high near 24°C. The humidity will still be fairly comfortable today with dewpoint values in the low teens.
Heading into the late afternoon and evening, cloud cover will thicken up over Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as some precipitation develops associated with instability ahead of the approaching warm front. Winnipeg will see a decent chance of seeing some light rain overnight, but amounts will likely remain under a few mm. Temperatures will dip to a low near 14°C tonight.
The RDPS shows very warm temperatures in Southern Saskatchewan this afternoon, indicative of the hot air mass set to move into Manitoba tomorrow.
Thursday will be the most significant day over Southern Manitoba as the full brunt of a hot and humid air mass settles over the province. Temperatures will soar to a high near 28°C while the humidity becomes particularly swampy, with dewpoint temperatures likely to climb to the 19-21°C range. This will feel quite sticky, especially as the first humid spell of the year, as humidex values climb toward the mid-30’s for the afternoon.
With the heat and humidity in place, attention turns towards thunderstorm potential. This setup has been interesting to watch develop over the last week as models have struggled to resolve exactly how much moisture would arrive in the province and how warm temperatures aloft would get. That said, there’s a severe thunderstorm risk today that will start over southeastern Saskatchewan with afternoon thunderstorm development possible. The threat will then shift eastwards through the evening and overnight with thunderstorms transitioning from surface-based to elevated as the low-level jet strengthens, helping the scattered afternoon activity grow upscale into a larger area of rain and thunderstorms.
AWM Day 1 Convective Outlook valid June 9-10, 2016
Taking a more technical look at it, as usual we return to the basic MIST principles:
Moisture: With surface dewpoints climbing towards or even over 20°C, ample moisture will be in place for thunderstorm development. The low-level jet that develops Thursday evening will also be helping propagate elevated moisture levels northwards.
Instability: Significant instability is in place with MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg developing over much of th region. MUCAPE values continue above 2000 J/kg through the overnight period. CAPE also appears to be fairly "fat", bolstered by potent mid-level lapse rates over 8°C/km.
Shear: Ample speed and directional shear will be in place with 0-6km bulk shear values of 35-50kt and strongly veering profiles. Low-level wind profiles in eastern Saskatchewan & western Manitoba will favour discrete supercell thunderstorm development with storm motion to the east-southeast.
Trigger: Strong solar insolation coupled with an incipient thermal wave and associated boundaries should provide multiple foci for thunderstorm initiation.
In general, it’s expected that discrete supercell thunderstorms with primary threats of damaging hail, wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h and a non-zero tornado threat. These storms will likely be scattered and progress to the east-southeast. As the evening wears on and the low-level get strengthens, the scattered activity has a high probability of growing upscale and organizing into an MCS[2]. If an MCS develops and moves eastwards, then the primary threats will be heavy rain and damaging hail. There is growing confidence that the MCS will develop into a bow echo, which is a fast-moving storm that produces severe wind gusts. Should this occur, than much of southwestern Manitoba and the Red River Valley will see a very significant threat of damaging hail and severe winds.
Temperatures will remain quite warm on Thursday night with low temperatures throughout the Red River Valley near 20°C.
Friday will continue to be warm with mainly sunny skies once any overnight convection clears out of the region. Temperatures will rocket to the upper 20’s by midday and while the highest humidity will push off to the east, it will still remain a bit muggy with dewpoint values stabilizing near 15-17°C. Winds will shift to be out of the northwest at around 20km/h. Expect a low on Friday night near 15°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
In the summer, deep southerly flows over the Eastern Prairies tap into humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and pull it northwards across the Great Plains and into the Southern Prairies. ↩
Mesoscale Convective System: A cloud system that occurs in connection with an ensemble of thunderstorms and produces a contiguous precipitation area on the order of 100 km or more in horizontal scale in at least one direction. ↩
We’ll have a couple days of cool weather before an upper ridge builds in, bringing hot & humid weather to southern Manitoba in the second half of the week. The arrival of the heat and humidity is also expected to bring our first significant risk of severe thunderstorms this year.
A cool northerly flow will be in place over southern Manitoba on Monday
This Week
Today will remain on the cool side as a surface high to our north-west pumps cool air into southern Manitoba. Some cloud cover is expected in southern Manitoba during the morning as an upper disturbance moves through, but skies should clear by the afternoon. Daytime highs will be in the upper teens with gusty north winds at 40 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.
Tuesday will remain cool as we remain under the influence of that surface high. Temperatures will once again be in the upper teens, although some areas in western Manitoba may reach the low twenties. Skies are expected to be mainly sunny and winds will be breezy from the north.
Warmer weather will begin to move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday as the surface high moves off to the east. A southerly flow will be in place over southern Manitoba, helping to bring warmer air into the region and push daytime highs into the mid twenties over the Red River Valley and the upper twenties over western Manitoba. There will likely be a risk of severe thunderstorms in eastern Saskatchewan on Wednesday and that may spill over into western Manitoba. Depending on how conditions develop, the thunderstorm risk may extend across all of southern Manitoba on Wednesday night as storms from Wednesday evening move east with time. A westerly steering flow and a strong southerly low-level jet would tend to favour easterly or south-easterly storm motions, which would help steer storms toward the Red River Valley during the overnight period. More details on Wednesday’s potential thunderstorm risk will be available as the week progresses.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests a hot, but unsettled pattern, will be in place for southern Manitoba from late this week into the weekend. An upper ridge will be centred over southern Manitoba during this time period, but we are expected to remain at the top of this ridge, putting us along the storm track. The influx of warm, humid air due to the southerly flow in this ridge combined with the moderate to strong flow with the jet stream aloft should favour numerous thunderstorm chances during the Wednesday-Monday period. The nature of the thunderstorm threat remains quite unclear, but at least one or two severe events seems probable at this time. An upper trough is expected to approach either late this weekend or next week, which will push out this hot/humid air mass.
