Mild Weather Returns for End of Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Bitterly cold temperatures will be in place today as a strong Arctic ridge of high pressure moves through the region. This cold snap will be short-lived as warmer air begins moving into the region through the weekend; by Sunday, milder temperatures will be in place alongside some light snow.

Today will be, temperature-wise, the coldest day of the week as temperatures are held back by the breezy northwesterly winds of an advancing Arctic air mass. Temperatures will recover only a little bit as they struggle to climb to an afternoon high near -21°C before quickly beginning to drop as the sun goes down this evening.

Environment Canada's extreme cold warning issued Thursday afternoon.
Environment Canada’s extreme cold warning issued Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures will plummet to the -30°C mark by Saturday morning as winds gradually diminish. Wind chills this morning as well as tonight will likely be flirting closely with the -40 mark. Environment Canada has issued an extreme cold warning for much of the province because of that.

Saturday may end up feeling like a colder day than Friday; while warmer temperatures may begin to work into the region, they’ll be accompanied by those famous winter southerlies that result in a fairly miserable transition day to warmer weather. While temperatures will rise towards -15°C by the end of the day, southerly winds will strengthen to around 40km/h making it feel significantly colder than it actually is. As a warm front begins moving into Manitoba later in the day, it will spread cloud cover into the Red River Valley and by mid-evening, it seems likely that skies will be mixed to cloudy with a chance of flurries. It will stay fairly windy through the night as temperatures continue to rise to around -12°C by Sunday morning.

GDPS 850mb temperature forecast valid Sunday evening
A frontal wave will pass through Manitoba on Sunday brininging warmer weather and light snow.

Sunday will be significantly more pleasant as mild weather continues to move into the region. Temperatures will climb to near -6°C on Sunday afternoon with light winds and a good chance of light snow. No significant accumulations are expected with Sunday’s disturbance, although 1-2cm of snow could pile up locally. Temperatures will fall to just -9 or -10°C on Sunday night under cloudy skies.

Long Range: Generally Mild

Looking ahead into next week, it looks like Southern Manitoba is transitioning into a generally above-normal temperature pattern.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
The CPC is calling for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day timeframe.

Milder Pacific air will be building into the province through much of next week. The start of next week will see a bit more variability in temperatures, with some days above normal and some below, but by the second half of the week there seems to be a fair amount of confidence of temperatures switching to a more persistent above-normal pattern. Current guidance places daytime highs near -5°C by the end of next week into the week after.

Through this period, no significant precipitation events are expected.

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -19°C.

Flurries Bring More Cold Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A disturbance passing through southwestern Manitoba today will spread a few flurries into the Red River Valley through the day today, while snow giving accumulations remains to our west where a further 2-4 cm of snow is expected to fall. Another blast of Arctic air will plunge southwards behind this system, plunging temperatures 10-15°C below normal by the end of the week.

A few flurries will be in place throughout Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today as a low pressure system passes through southwestern Manitoba. West of the Valley, through Parkland & southwest Manitoba, the snowfall will be more organized, with between 2 to 4 cm piling up by the end of the day.

Amounts diminish quickly to the east, however, with only a dusting in the Red River Valley. The flurries will taper off by the evening, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies.

Temperature wise, today will be the best day of the week. Daytime highs should climb to around -14°C in Winnipeg today with winds out of the southeast between 10-20 km/h. Temperatures will be cool tonight, but the cloud cover will help moderate things ever so slightly. The overnight low in Winnipeg will fall to near -23°C with light northwesterly winds.

The story for the remainder of the work week is simple: Arctic air building in. Behind Wednesday’s low, an Arctic ridge will build southeastwards, ushering in colder air that will result in temperatures near 10°C below normal by Friday.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 18Z Friday February 12, 2016
The GDPS is showing 850mb temperatures nearly 10°C below normal for Winnipeg on Friday.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy as we remain relatively close to a strong frontal boundary to our west. As a result, temperatures will be similar to Wednesday but just a degree or two colder. That means in Winnipeg I expect to see a high near -15°C with winds remaining fairly light out of the west to northwest. Some cloud will begin breaking up on Thursday night as the ridge begins pushing into the southern Prairies, and the overnight low will dip to around -25 or -26°C under light northerly winds.

Friday will see clearing as the Arctic ridge moves over Southern Manitoba. This will be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures struggling to climb above -20°C. Friday night will be the coldest night of the week, with temperatures dipping precariously close to the -30°C mark, if not below it. Throughout the whole time, winds will remain light.

Long Range: Big-Time Warm-Up In The Cards?

While the cold weather will likely persist into the weekend, all signs point towards a dramatic warm-up for the beginning of next week and potentially persisting well through the week.

The first of several Pacific-sourced systems is expected to track across the Prairies on Monday, spreading warmer air eastwards as the Polar Vortex begins shifting eastwards. This system is forecast to be followed up by a much, much stronger system that is showing the potential of bringing significant amounts of warm air to the eastern Prairies. The potential for daytime highs above 0°C returns for the second half of next week.

Of course, along with any big warm-up, the potential exists for some particularly uncomfortable days with strong southerly winds and it’s currently unclear on where exactly precipitation associated with these systems will fall. More on that later this week!

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -20°C.

Colder This Week

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This week will be see temperatures trend below seasonal as a surge of arctic air comes down from the north.

Colder weather is expected this week behind the weekend's departing low pressure system
Colder weather is expected this week behind the weekend’s departing low pressure system

Today will be slightly below seasonal as colder air filters southward behind the weekend’s strong low pressure system. High temperatures will be in the low minus teens under clearing skies. Winds will remain stiff out of the north-west at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h. There may still be a bit of drifting snow on the highways with these wind speeds, but heavy blowing snow is not expected.

Tuesday will see a further drop in temperatures as that arctic air mass becomes more entrenched over southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be in the upper minus teens under mainly sunny skies. Winds will remain northerly at about 20km/h. Tuesday night is expected to be quite cold due to the presence of a strong surface ridge of high pressure over the area along with clear skies. Temperatures are expected to drop to around -30C, but luckily wind chill values should not be a significant factor due to the light winds with this high pressure system.

Wednesday will remain cold, with temperatures staying in the upper minus teens. The good part of this colder pattern is that we should continue to see sunny skies on Wednesday. We will be under the centre of a surface high on Wednesday, bringing generally light winds to the region.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows cold conditions sticking around for the rest of the work-week. Models suggest we should warm back up to above-seasonal conditions by the weekend into next week. In the even longer range it appears that we may see one more arctic blast later next week before a more prolonged warm period takes hold towards the end of the month.

Weekend Storm To Bring Snow & Warmer Weather

Brad Leave a comment

Warm weather is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend as a strong low pressure system developing over Northern Alberta spreads mild air eastwards through the Prairies. This storm system will then slide southeastwards across the Prairies, bringing a moderate snowfall event to Manitoba primarily through Saturday afternoon and Sunday, followed by falling temperatures, gusty winds and blowing snow.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today as the city remains locked underneath a tight baroclinic zone. [1] There will be a continued chance of occasionally seeing some of the flurry activity that developed last night over the city, however no real accumulations of snow are expected today. Temperatures will be fairly pleasant with a daytime high near -6°C, which is 4°C above the normal high of -10°C for this time of year.

The chance for any flurry activity will diminish tonight, but the cloud will stick around as temperatures dip to around -11°C for the overnight low.

Storm System Moves in on Saturday

Saturday will bring the arrival of both warmer weather and the storm system that will bring a new batch of snow to the region. First the good news: temperatures will be on their way up through the entire day. From the morning low near -11°C, temperatures will gradually climb to near -5°C midday and then up to near -1°C by evening. Temperatures will then remain fairly steady through the night, wavering around the -1°C mark. Cooler air will begin working into the region on Sunday, dropping the temperatures in Winnipeg to around -8°C by the evening.

AWM Snowfall Forecast for February 6/7, 2016
Updated AWM Snowfall Forecast for February 6/7, 2016 (Original here)

While some flurries are possible through the morning, the real snow will develop through the afternoon hours as the low centre of the storm begins moving into Southern Manitoba. Snow will intensify into the evening and the heaviest snow of the storm will be through Saturday night. On Sunday morning the snow will likely begin to ease, but continue to persist much of the day. By the time all is said and done, it looks quite likely that essentially all of Southern Manitoba will have seen at least 5cm of new snow before things taper off on Sunday night.

The heaviest amounts will fall to the north of the low track, which, given that it’s still a day and a half out, could change. The current agreement seems relatively dependable, however if it does end up shifting south even just a little, it’s possible that Winnipeg could surpass 10cm.

Although this system has the potential of producing a lot of snow, it doesn’t look like it will qualify for a snowfall warning from Environment Canada, which requires 10cm to fall within a 12hr. time period. This system will produce higher amounts more through it’s longer residency time than its intensity. That said, it’s still early for a lot of things with systems like these; we’ll be keeping an eye on it and updating forecasts if it looks like it’s going to change significantly from current expectations.

Lastly, there will be a bit of wind with this system too. Winds won’t be too bad on Saturday, however for a short while in the afternoon winds may climb up to around 30-40km/h out of the southeast. Winds will diminish overnight before picking up on Sunday out of the northwest. Blowing snow will be an issue on Sunday as the northwesterly winds increase to 40 gusting 60km/h and combine with the fresh snow. Through the Red River Valley, the strong winds will be in place by mid-day Sunday and persist into the late evening hours, so if you have plans to travel on Sunday afternoon or evening, prepare to give yourself some extra time to account for poor visibilities and driving conditions. For those reading this in southwestern Manitoba, the stronger winds will be in place by Sunday morning and persist into the overnight period as well, making blowing snow an issue all the way west into southeastern Saskatchewan.

Long Range: Colder Weather…But Only Briefly

Behind this storm system, cooler air will begin slumping into the Prairies, returning temperatures to seasonal values. Another batch of snow is possible Tuesday night as another disturbance moves through the region, which will usher in a pattern change that will see southwestern Manitoba clipped by several systems while even colder air works into the Prairies.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid February 13-20, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid February 13-20, 2016

Into the second half of next week, below-seasonal temperatures will begin moving into the province with daytime highs slumping into the low minus teens and overnight lows dipping below -20°C. This cooler weather will likely persist into the early parts of the following week before a moderating trend begins, shown by the higher probabilities of cooler-than-normal weather in the NAEFS forecast above.

The seasonal daytime high for February 5th in Winnipeg is -10°C, while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

  1. A baroclinic zone is an area where there is a strong temperature gradient across relatively short distances, either at the surface or aloft.  ↩