Seasonal Christmas Leads to Cold Weekend

Winnipeg will see seasonal weather for Christmas Day with a slight chance elf some flurries as some cloud works its way across the region. Temperatures will plummet this weekend, however, as the first large Arctic ridge of the winter builds over the Prairies.

Merry Christmas from the crew here at A Weather Moment! We hope that you have a great few days however you spend them! Shift workers, thank you for continuing to do your work through the holidays so we can continue having the services we rely on!

Today will be a fairly unremarkable day with seasonal weather through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. A weak disturbance moving across the province will bring mixed skies with just a very slight chance of some scattered light flurry activity as temperatures recover to around -12°C by early in the afternoon. It’s downhill after that, though, courtesy a building Arctic ridge that will push the cloud out of the region and bring colder air across the Prairies.

NAM Forecast Tempreature & Pressure valid Friday Night
This NAM forecast shows the very cold temperatures over the Prairies on Friday night as the Arctic high builds into Manitoba from Saskatchewan.

Temperatures will fall to around -25°C tonight. Saturday will bring a few clouds through the region and significantly colder temperatures with daytime highs of just -18 or -17°C. These highs are around 5°C below average for this time of year. Tonight will see temperatures fall to around -23 or -24°C with some scattered cloud.

Sunday will be a final cold day as the ridge slides to our south and southeasterly outflow winds set up over the region. Expect mixed skies and a high near -16°C. A developing low pressure system is forecast to begin spreading warmer air and cloud eastward across the Prairies on Sunday night, signalling an end to the cold snap. Temperatures will drop to around -24°C in the evening before a warming trend kicks in with the cloud. At this point, it looks like temperatures will rise to around -15°C by Monday morning. There’s some uncertainty with this system, though, and if it’s slower to develop than expected, the warmer air may not arrive until during the day on Monday.

Long Range

Next week is looking fairly nice, although the sun may be a rare site. With the arrival of the next system on Monday, warmer weather will move into Winnipeg for much of the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will likely be a bit above seasonal, around the -10°C mark, but those warmer temperatures will once again be accompanied by a lot of cloud. Much of the week will bring the potential for some flurries, but a more organized system looks possible mid-week that could bring another 4-8cm of snow to the region.

A brief shot of cold air rounds out the end of the week before a surge of very mild air moves in for early January, with the prospect of highs near the 0°C mark returning. So if we just need to make it through this one cold snap, then we’re back on a trend towards very mild winter weather!

A Seasonal Christmas Ahead; Cold This Weekend

Light snow will taper off and lead towards a seasonal Christmas this year with a chance of flurries, but perhaps one of the strongest shots of cold air seen this winter will move in for Boxing Day.

Light snow will persist through much of today thanks to a persistent area of snow hanging back into the Red River Valley. There will be a bit more accumulation; generally around 2-4 cm will fall today through the valley. The wind will be a bit chilly as it picks up out of the northwest to around 30 km/h with some gusts on top of that; with the fresh snow in place, it will likely be enough to produce localized areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities. With that north wind, we’ll see temperatures fall throughout the day to around -10°C by the evening hours, which will be just a couple degrees warmer than our overnight low of -12°C.

Thursday will see plenty of cloud lingering around in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be nearly stagnant through the day, rising just a couple degrees by early in the afternoon before beginning to fall again, a casualty of the incoming Arctic air. It doesn’t look like snow will be much of an issue, though, so other than the cool temperatures, the day should actually be alright. Heading into the night, temperatures will drop to around -15°C under mostly cloudy skies.

GDPS forecast surface temperatures for Friday at 18Z
GDPS forecast surface temperatures for midday Friday

Friday, Christmas Day, will be a seasonal day thanks to a weak disturbance forecast to slip across the region, delaying the arrival of the colder Arctic air. With a daytime high of -12°C, temperatures will be nearly right on what’s seasonal for this time of year. A bit of very light snow is likely, but accumulations look to be minimal. Winds will shift around to the north and begin ushering in colder air late in the day. Expect an overnight low on Friday night dipping into the -20’s, likely around -22°C or so with clear skies beginning to develop over the region.

Long Range

The weekend will start with a miniature deep freeze, at least by the standards 2015 has set so far. Saturday will see clear skies and daytime highs struggling to climb even towards the mid-minus teens, likely ending up somewhere between -20 and -15°C. Fortunately, the cold weather will be short lived with a surge milder air returning for Sunday and returning daytime highs close to the -10°C range.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 31, 2015 to January 7, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 31, 2015 to January 7, 2016

Heading into the longer-range, there’s very strong agreement that a return to significantly above normal temperatures will return to the region for the new year. The NAEFS is actually forecasting a significant stretch of daytime highs likely in the -10°C to -5°C range for the first week of January. So just get past this weekend and rest easy knowing that relative warmth is on the way!

The seasonal temperatures for Winnipeg right now are daytime highs of -12°C and overnight lows of -22°C.

More Snow This Week?

It looks like someone forgot to turn off the snow machine as yet another round of snow is possible early this week.

Today will be near seasonal with temperatures around -10C. Skies are expected to be mainly cloudy with a low stratus deck hanging over the Red River Valley. Winds will be from the south-east at 20km/h.

A low pressure system may bring more snow to southern Manitoba on Tuesday
A low pressure system may bring more snow to southern Manitoba on Tuesday

Tuesday will see the arrival of another low pressure system that will likely bring shovel-able snow to parts of southern Manitoba. At this point it appears that 5-10 cm of snow is most probable for the Red River Valley, although that could be more or less depending on the eventual track of the system. Below is a current rundown of model predictions from December 20 for this storm (assuming a 15:1 snow to liquid water ratio):

Wednesday will be seasonably mild in the wake of the departing low from Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper minus single digits under mainly cloudy skies and light winds. Luckily there won’t be a large pressure gradient with Tuesday’s low pressure system so winds will be relatively light, so extensive blowing snow won’t be an issue.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows generally seasonable weather up to Christmas. There are some hints of slightly below normal weather developing just after Christmas, but models suggest it won’t last long. A return to above-seasonal weather appears possible around New Year’s.

Seasonal Weather with a Bit of Snow

Calmer weather is settling into Southern Manitoba after a Colorado Low dumped 10–20cm of snow over the Red River Valley, quickly turning an area that still had substantial amounts of snow-free ground into a winter wonderland.

Today will bring mixed skies to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as cloud left behind from this week’s storm straggles over the region. Temperatures will be much closer to seasonal than we’ve experienced over the last several weeks. Today’s high temperature will be around –13°C, actually a couple degrees below the seasonal high temperature of –11°C. With some clear patches working their way into the Red River Valley this evening, the overnight low will manage to drop all the way down to a seasonal –20 or –21°C.

RDPS Precipitation Forecast valid 18-06Z December 19/20, 2015
The RDPS shows a swath of snow pushing across Southern Manitoba late Saturday

Saturday will see more cloud spreading into Southern Manitoba as a mid-level disturbance tracks along the international border. As the system approaches, an area of light snow will spread across the region. Total snowfall is expected to be light, with just 1–2cm over the Red River Valley. Further north through the Interlake could see a tad more snow with total amounts in the 2–4cm range. Temperatures will remain cool with daytime highs near –12°C. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the southeast at 20–30km/h.

The extensive cloud cover at night will moderate the overnight low, with temperatures dropping to just –14 or –15°C. The winds will diminish early in the evening.

Sunday will continue with mixed skies, but temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than Friday or Saturday as daytime highs climb towards –8°C with light northwesterly winds. Not much else to talk about for the end of the weekend as skies clear and temperatures dip back into the mid-minus teens on Sunday night.

Looking Ahead to Christmas Week

Next week is looking great considering we’re moving into the second half of December. The northwesterly flow aloft which is giving us this outbreak of more seasonal temperatures is forecast to be replaced by a more zonal (west-to-east) or southwesterly flow aloft, which will help milder air spread over the southern Prairies.

We may see a few bouts of light snow next week while we enjoy warmer-than-seasonal temperatures in the –5 to –10°C range.