2016 Kicks Off With Mild Weather

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Winnipeg will be ringing in 2016 with temperatures 5-10°C above normal as a surge of mild Pacific air sweeps across the Prairies.

A gorgeous holiday Friday and weekend is on tap for Winnipeg thanks to a surge of warmer air that swept into the province overnight. Today will bring mainly sunny skies and breezy westerlies at 20-30 km/h. Temperatures will climb to around -4°C for the afternoon with a chance of some cloudiness as a bank of stratus cloud passes mainly to the east of the Red River Valley. Winds will persist out of the west-northwest at about 20 km/h as temperatures dip to to around -10°C.

Tomorrow will bring some afternoon cloud as a weak cool front approaches, but not before temperatures climb to the -3 or -2°C mark! At this point, it doesn’t look like there will be too much cloud on Saturday afternoon as once again, the main area of cloud is forecast to pass east of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to around -12°C on Saturday night before moderating slightly as cloud cover begins building into the Red River Valley.

RDPS Forecast 850mb Temperatures valid 06Z Saturdy Morning
A significant push of warm air sets up over the Red River Valley for Saturday, shown here via the forecast 850mb temperatures.

Sunday looks like the weather takes a bit of a turn for the worse, but the mild weather persists. The cloud that will be tied up to our east over the next couple of days is forecast to finally spill westward and push into the Red River Valley. With that happening, it looks like Sunday will be mainly cloudy, but still mild for early January, with a high near -7°C. The cloud will keep things warm on Sunday night with a low near -10°C.

Long Range

Conditions will remain mild through the week with daytime highs in the -5 to -10°C range. No significant precipitation is expected until possibly the end of the week, so all in all it’s looking great!

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid January 9-16, 2015

In the longer range, models are converging on seasonal temperatures for the region. This would mean occasional snow and highs in the -10 to -15°C range and lows between -20 to -25°C.

Big Warm-Up to Start the New Year

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While the cold snap that settled into Winnipeg for Boxing Day was incredibly short-lived with temperatures returning to seasonal values just 3 days later, that didn’t stop many from wondering where the nice weather went. Good news for those that didn’t want to even deal with a few days of (relatively easy-going) Winnipeg winter: a big warm-up is on the way for the start of 2016.

The weather today and tomorrow will be defined by the passage of a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that is tracking through North Dakota. This system will spread plenty of cloud across Southern Manitoba, some will be higher-level cloud, while there will also be low-level cloud that will have fog patches along its edges and some light flurry activity under it. The sun may make a few appearances through the day, but overall it will be mainly cloudy.

Temperatures will be fairly similar both today and tomorrow with daytime highs of -9 and -8°C and overnight lows both nights around the -12 or -13°C mark.

Thursday will bring a bit more sun than Wednesday and less chance of any flurry activity.

Forecast 850mb temperatures for Thursday afternoon from the RDPS
The 850mb temperature forecast from the RDPS clearly shows the surge of warm air pushing into the Prairies on beginning Thursday.

By Friday, the warm air begins surging over the province. The set-up for this delivery of warmth is a rather odd one; over the past couple days, an upper-level ridge has been building northwards over the B.C. coast, pushing warm air into Alaska and the Yukon. This upper-level ridge is forecast to spill eastwards over the Rocky Mountains and then build into the Central Prairies. This will release the built up warmth over the western Arctic and allow it to spill southeastwards across the Prairies. It’s certainly a rarity that Winnipeg sees warm advection in a northwest flow, especially in January of all months. The leading edge of the warm air should help temperatures climb to around -5 or -4°C with a bit of a westerly to northwesterly breeze. Skies should be fairly clear for the most part. Expect temperatures to dip down to the low minus-teens again on Friday night.

Long Range

Warm weather should persist through the weekend. A brief shot of cooler air on Sunday night could result in a few flurries on Sunday morning, but no significant snowfall is expected. Daytime highs through the weekend will likely sit near -3°C, although if everything were to happen perfectly, then a high near 0°C could be possible. Saturday looks mainly sunny at this point, while a bit more cloud is in store for Saturday night and Sunday.

Monday still looks quite mild with daytime highs close to the freezing mark, but then more seasonal air works its way back into the region mid-week.

Seasonal daytime highs for Winnipeg at this time of year are near -13°C. Seasonal overnight lows are near -23°C.

Staying on the Cool Side

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Temperatures will remain on the cooler side early this week, although values won’t be far from seasonal.

Today will be a mixture of sun and cloud with temperatures in the mid minus teens. Some mid and upper level cloud cover will likely be in place during the morning, but may begin to clear out by the afternoon – although Winnipeg may be on the edge of this transition. Winds will be breezy from the south-east.

Tuesday will see temperatures near seasonal values under mainly cloudy skies. High temperatures will sit in the low minus teens with a light northerly wind.

Wednesday will be much the same as Tuesday, with temperatures in the low minus teens and mainly cloudy skies. Winds will be light from the west or north-west.

Long Range

Long range models suggest a return to warm weather around New Years. El Nino is reaching peak strength as we approach mid-winter and thus its impacts will continue to be pronounced through the remainder of winter.

Seasonal Christmas Leads to Cold Weekend

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Winnipeg will see seasonal weather for Christmas Day with a slight chance elf some flurries as some cloud works its way across the region. Temperatures will plummet this weekend, however, as the first large Arctic ridge of the winter builds over the Prairies.

Merry Christmas from the crew here at A Weather Moment! We hope that you have a great few days however you spend them! Shift workers, thank you for continuing to do your work through the holidays so we can continue having the services we rely on!

Today will be a fairly unremarkable day with seasonal weather through Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. A weak disturbance moving across the province will bring mixed skies with just a very slight chance of some scattered light flurry activity as temperatures recover to around -12°C by early in the afternoon. It’s downhill after that, though, courtesy a building Arctic ridge that will push the cloud out of the region and bring colder air across the Prairies.

NAM Forecast Tempreature & Pressure valid Friday Night
This NAM forecast shows the very cold temperatures over the Prairies on Friday night as the Arctic high builds into Manitoba from Saskatchewan.

Temperatures will fall to around -25°C tonight. Saturday will bring a few clouds through the region and significantly colder temperatures with daytime highs of just -18 or -17°C. These highs are around 5°C below average for this time of year. Tonight will see temperatures fall to around -23 or -24°C with some scattered cloud.

Sunday will be a final cold day as the ridge slides to our south and southeasterly outflow winds set up over the region. Expect mixed skies and a high near -16°C. A developing low pressure system is forecast to begin spreading warmer air and cloud eastward across the Prairies on Sunday night, signalling an end to the cold snap. Temperatures will drop to around -24°C in the evening before a warming trend kicks in with the cloud. At this point, it looks like temperatures will rise to around -15°C by Monday morning. There’s some uncertainty with this system, though, and if it’s slower to develop than expected, the warmer air may not arrive until during the day on Monday.

Long Range

Next week is looking fairly nice, although the sun may be a rare site. With the arrival of the next system on Monday, warmer weather will move into Winnipeg for much of the remainder of the week. Daytime highs will likely be a bit above seasonal, around the -10°C mark, but those warmer temperatures will once again be accompanied by a lot of cloud. Much of the week will bring the potential for some flurries, but a more organized system looks possible mid-week that could bring another 4-8cm of snow to the region.

A brief shot of cold air rounds out the end of the week before a surge of very mild air moves in for early January, with the prospect of highs near the 0°C mark returning. So if we just need to make it through this one cold snap, then we’re back on a trend towards very mild winter weather!