Warm Start to June

After a warm weekend, which featured a beautifully Saturday and stormy Sunday, we will stick with warm to hot weather to start the week. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build into Southern Manitoba this week, allowing us to keep the warm conditions experienced on the weekend.

Upper ridge over Southern Manitoba

A ridge of high pressure is expected to build into Southern Manitoba this week

Monday will be a warm to hot day in Southern Manitoba, with high temperatures in the mid to high twenties under mainly sunny skies. Tuesday will again be warm and sunny day, with high temperatures in the low to mid twenties. An easterly flow pushing slightly cooler air into the province is the reason why Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday. Temperatures will climb again on Wednesday, as we reach back up into the high twenties under a south-easterly flow.

The weather through late week is, as usual, less certain. Thursday looks to remain warm but Friday into the weekend may be cooler. A low pressure system is currently forecast to cross Southern Manitoba on Friday, which will be a catalyst for cooler weather. More details will be available later in the week.

Trough over Western NA, Ridge over Central/Eastern NA

A trough will cause below-normal temperatures over Western North America (blue areas), while a ridge brings warmer weather to Central/Eastern North America (orange areas)

A quick update on the June forecast. Most long-range models are showing a ridge-trough pattern dominating North America through June. This pattern means a ridge will likely reside over Central/Eastern North America through a good part of June while a trough sits over Western North America. Southern Manitoba will be frequently caught in between these two features, causing our weather to be variable with hot spells as well as some cooler outbreaks. This pattern may also promote more chances for thunderstorms, though this is not as clear-cut.

At any rate, enjoy what will be a nice first half of the week!

Elsewhere in Weather News: June 2nd, 2012

Flooding Returns to China

Another round of flooding in China left locals in the province of Guangdong scrambling for higher grounds this past week as floodwaters rose and swept away homes. As opposed to the flooding in north-western China featured in the May 12th post, this flooding took place in the south-east regions about 200km north of Hong Kong and was associated with a low pressure system.


Roads turn into rivers as heavy rains fall in Meizhou, Guangdong. (Source: Euro News)

The large city of Meizhou, Guangdong, was caught in the middle of one the most severe floods this year. Some 210,000 residents living in the city were affected and 25,500 had to be evacuated from terrain that is prone to landslides and flooding, prior to these heavy rainfalls. As torrential rains fell, landslides took out more than 1,000 houses and the extensive rains caused over 4,000 hectares of farmland to be lost. In addition to that, six people lost their lives in the floods. The government has estimated the financial tally to be over 30 million dollars, taking in consideration damaged crops and infrastructure as well as services used to fight against the floods.

This rain is the last thing China needs this year, as widespread flooding has been occurring throughout the country. Areas at risk have included the north-west earlier this May, the south-east this past week and coming week. Also, currently, in the central region of China, crews are already prepping dikes since rivers are expected to overflow their banks in the coming summer months. The latter threat is due to saturated grounds combined with forecast medium-range models suggesting one and a half times average rainfall – China’s Ministry of Water Resources are on high alert.

Forecast rainfall

Map showing more rainfall expected in Meizhou next Tuesday morning. (approximate location of Meizhou with red circle, rain in shades of grey). Rain was not only expected on Tuesday but also Monday and Wednesday. (Source: weather-forecast.com)

A Chance of Showers Today, Mild Weekend Ahead

A weak trough pushing across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, bringing with it some scattered showers or thundershowers. Things will clear out quickly, and we’ll be looking at temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.

GEMREG QPF for Friday Afternoon

Total expected precipitation from teh GEMREG model this afternoon.

We’ll have a slightly more unsettled day today as a weak surface trough pushes into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb up to just over the 20°C this afternoon before showers and thunderstorms develop over SW Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment. It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain this afternoon will be through the Western Red River Valley, with diminishing chances east of the Red River. By the time the trough gets to the Whiteshell, the threat of precipitation will likely be over.

Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day as sunshine once again dominates across Southern Manitoba and highs climb to around 25°C. Things will turn a little more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain blossoms over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain is still uncertain, however best indications are that we’ll see a cloudy day across much of the Red River Valley, with the bulk of the rain passing north of Winnipeg through the interalke region, with only a chance of showers for Winnipeg and areas south. It will certainly be a system to keep an eye on as the weekend progresses.

A Chance To Dry Out A Little Bit…

After a deluge of rain over the past 10 days, Winnipeg is finally set to see some sunny, dry weather. A high pressure system pushing through the area will provide sunny skies over the next couple days with daytime highs pushing back towards our normal high of about 22°C.

Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal since April 1

Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal since April 1. (KEN GIGLIOTTI / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)

Winnipeg is absolutely soaked. So far this month, many areas of the city have seen over 100mm (3.94”) of rain, with some areas of the west end seeing closer to 125mm (4.92”). This is a huge amount of rain for a single month in Winnipeg; the Manitoba Agricultural Department released a report showing that Winnipeg has had 46% more rain than normal over the last 30 days. This wetter-than-normal month has broken a 9-month stretch of dryer-than-normal conditions for Winnipeg and the city has already shattered last year’s total summer precipitaiton. If summer is considered June, July and August, our 100-125mm of precipitation in Winnipeg this month trounces the 93mm we got through Summer 2011. In addition, through summer last year only 7 days had thunderstorms reported. So far in May alone, we’ve had 5 days with thunderstorms. All in all, we’re off to a wet start to the summer that’s already been more promising on the storm front than last year.

Over the next couple days, though, we’ll see the sun. A ridge of high pressure will move across the province today, bringing sunny skies, light winds and a high near 19°C. The high begins to move out of the region on Thursday, allowing a slight southwest flow to bring some warmer air for the day, allowing our daytime highs to climb just over 20°C under sunny skies.

We’ll see a slight chance of showers on Friday afternoon as a warm front pushes through the Red River Valley, bringing temperatures in the mid-20’s for the weekend.