Seasonal Temperatures & Dreary Weather Rounds Out The Week

November 11, 2015November 10, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

The remainder of the work week will bring fairly seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg as the weather slowly improves. For the weekend, however, another blast of well above-seasonal temperatures is on the way!

Today will see a continuation of yesterday’s fog and drizzle patches through the morning hours, but it should dissipate with conditions improving by late morning as a weak cold front passes through the region. Behind that, we’ll be left with mainly cloudy conditions and light winds as the temperature climbs to around 3°C. The cloud cover will stick around overnight as we head to a low near –1°C.

Thursday will see a chance of flurries in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a weak shortwave drifts over the region in the northwest flow aloft. Northwesterly winds to around 20km/h will accompany a very close to seasonal high of 1°C. If we do see snow, it won’t accumulate to much, if anything at all.

12hr. Cumulative QPF valid 00Z Friday November 13, 2015 — Flurries are possible through the day on Thursday while a much larger system passes through Ontario. Accumulations are expected to be light.

After the shortwave passes through on Thursday, skies will begin to clear, although with so much low-level moisture in the region, exact timing will be tricky. Skies will likely clear out at some point Thursday evening/overnight, however the cloud might persist into Friday morning before clearing. This timing will affect our overnight low forecast; if things clear out earlier, then we should see a low near –5°C or so, while if the cloud sticks around through the night, the low will be closer to –1 or –2° C.

Regardless of how Friday starts, we’ll be heading towards a mainly sunny high of 3 or 4 °C. Friday’s overnight low will sit near 0 to +1°C as much warmer air begins building in for the weekend.

More Warm Weather This Weekend And Beyond

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will soar again as the large-scale northwesterly flow that was in place shifts to be a more zonal, westerly flow, replacing cooler air with more mild, Pacific-sourced weather.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid November 17 to November 24, issued 12Z November 9, 2015 — The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Manitoba in the 8-14 day time range.

Generally speaking, daytime highs should climb into the upper single digits for both Saturday and Sunday which, while not sounding particularly warm, will be anywhere from 7–10°C above normal for this time of year.

Another low pressure system will work its way into southern Manitoba early next week, and while most of the precipitation looks like it will remain well north of the Red River Valley, the pattern does look like we may once again see the return of low cloud, drizzle and fog. It’s too early to tell, but just in case, you’d better get out there and enjoy the sun this weekend before it gets covered up again!

Turning Cloudy Again

November 9, 2015November 8, 2015 Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have one more sunny day before conditions turn cloudy again. A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring another round of dreary, wet weather.

Today will be quite nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near 10C under mainly sunny skies and light winds. The normal high for this time of year is only 1C, so conditions today are well above seasonal. Enjoy it, this may be one of the last nice days of the year!

A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will see the return of dreary, wet weather. A low pressure system moving up from the US will spread showery weather over southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be very light, but the cloudy, wet conditions won’t make for a very nice day. Winds will be from the north at 20km/h.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s grey weather. However, instead of just rain, we may see some snow mixed in as well. No accumulations are expected, but the white stuff is never a welcome sight at this time of year. Winds will be north-westerly at 20-30km/h with temperatures in the low single digits.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015

Long range models, such as the NAEFS pictured above, continue to strongly suggest that above-seasonal weather will last for most of November. Given the strength of El Nino this winter, expect to continue hearing a lot more about warmer than normal weather in the long range!

One More Day of Showers, Then Sunshine!

November 6, 2015November 6, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see one more day of wet weather before a shift in the large-scale pattern finally returns some sunshine to the region. The initial cost will be some cool weather, but a decent blast of warmer weather should move in for Sunday!

The nearly 2 weeks of cloudy weather will continue today thanks to another disturbance rippling through the region in the northwest flow that has set up over the region. Rainfall will be fairly light today, coming from scattered showers beginning mid-day and lasting through the afternoon rather than any organized, large area of rain. Alongside the rain will be west to northwesterly winds in the 15–25km/h range with perhaps a bit of gustiness on top of that through the afternoon hours.

Winds will shift to be more westerly tonight, leading to a cooler overnight low than we’ve seen lately; the more westerly component to the wind will mitigate the warming effect the lakes can have on us at this time of year and allow cooler air to push into the Red River Valley. Thanks to that, temperatures will drop to around the –2°C mark tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

Sun Reappears Saturday

Saturday will bring an end to the persistent cloud that has blanketed the region for nearly two weeks as the dominant flow shifts to be more southwesterly, bringing drier air through the low-levels into Southern Manitoba. There will likely be a fair amount of cloud in the Red River Valley in the morning, but the winds will pick up to 20–30km/h through the morning and the cloud cover should push out of the region through the afternoon, leaving us with a sunny end of the day. There’s uncertainty as to exactly how long the cloud will stick around on Saturday; models tend to be too quick on moving cloud out of the Red River Valley, but it seems a safe bet that by the end of the afternoon, the sun will be shining.

Some of the clearing will be facilitated by a ridge of high pressure moving through the region; thanks to that, our daytime high will be limited to just a couple degrees above freezing. Fortunately, a warm front will push through overnight and keep overnight lows seasonably mild and near the freezing mark.

GDPS Surface Winds & Pressure for Sunday November 8, 2015 — The GDPS is forecasting a low pressure system to track across the Central Prairies on Sunday, bringing milder weather to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Sunday will be a beautiful day. With Winnipeg & the Red River Valley firmly entrenched in the warm sector of the low pressure system passing to our north, temperatures will climb to around the 10°C mark with winds out of the south at around 20km/h. There really won’t be anything to complain about!

Pleasant Weather to Start Next Week; Chance of Snow Mid-Week

The pleasant weather will persist into the beginning of next week with seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures continuing and no precipitation expected. A mid-week cool down is possible, though, and with it may come the first snowfall of the season for Winnipeg; at this point we’ll just have to wait and see how things develop.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 00Z November 6, 2015

In the long-range, the broken record continues and generally warmer-than-seasonal temperatures are expected. As the NAEFS shows in the image above, for the 8–14 day forecast range—the end of next week into the week after it—there’s a very high likelihood of above-seasonal temperatures. This doesn’t mean that the temperatures will consistently be above seasonal and cold weather isn’t possible; rather that, overall, conditions will average out to warmer than seasonal.

Given that November has been off to far worse starts than the green grass and late-season golfing of this year, other than the lack of sunshine[1] one can’t really complain too much! Unless you really like the cold and snow.

Enjoy the weekend and we’ll be back bright and early Monday morning with your forecast to start off next week!

The persistent cloud cover has also been partly responsible for the continued warmth in the region, so there’s that… ↩

Unsettled Weather Continues; Snow Evades Red River Valley

November 4, 2015November 4, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

Unsettled Weather Continues; Snow Elusive in Red River Valley

The unsettled pattern that’s been a mainstay of weather chatter since the beginning of the weekend will continue to bring more dreary and wet weather to Winnipeg through the remainder of this week. The upside? Temperatures will continue to remain unseasonably warm for the foreseeable future; not a bad trade if you can handle the absence of sunshine!

Today will see Winnipeg and the Red River Valley under the influence of a low pressure system moving through the Lake of the Woods region and off into northwestern Ontario. While this system is expected to spread 5–10cm of snow across the Parkland region of western Manitoba, here in the Red River Valley generally light shower or drizzle activity is expected with total rainfall amounts under a couple mm or so. Daytime highs will climb to around the 7°C mark with relatively light winds eventually shifting out of the northwest to 20–30km/h in the afternoon.

RDPS 24hr. Total Precipitation valid at 12Z 05 November, 2015 — This total precipitation forecast from the RDPS shows how much precipitation is expected from Wednesday morning through the overnight period.

As we head into the evening, the chance for showers or drizzle will continue well into the evening and overnight period. Total amounts, once again, look quite low. The drizzle and/or shower activity will likely taper off late overnight or early Thursday morning. Expect a low near 3°C.

Thursday will be a bit of an unpleasant day as a cooler temperature steady near 4°C combines with brisk northwesterly winds at 30–40km/h as another low pressure system passes by southeast of the Red River Valley. While conditions will be dry through the morning hours, Winnipeg will quite likely see more shower activity push in from the south for the afternoon hours, clipped by the northwestern flank of the area of rain and snow produced by the low moving through.

RDPS 12hr. Total Precipitation valid at 00Z 06 November, 2015 — The RDPS, among many other models, is forecasting Winnipeg to be clipped by the northwestern flank of an area of precipitation that will spread across SE Manitoba through the day.

The showers will taper off late in the afternoon and the Red River Valley will head towards an overnight low near –1°C under mainly cloudy skies with diminishing winds.

Friday continues the above-normal daytime highs, and the dreary weather, as mainly cloudy conditions give way to a few scattered showers in the afternoon with northwest winds of 20–30km/h. Daytime highs will sit near 4°C. Friday night will be quite cool with a low near –3°C and, finally, clouds beginning to scatter out.

Mild Weekend Ahead; Sunshine Possible Too!

This weekend looks to continue the above-seasonal temperatures with daytime highs in the mid-single digits and mixed to mainly sunny skies. Saturday might see somewhat windy conditions, however things look quite pleasant on Sunday with little by way of wind, sunshine and a high near 5°C or so. Granted, at this time of year, sunny forecasts can quickly become stratus-filled broken promises, so we’ll be keeping an eye on things as we head towards the weekend.

A Weather Moment