Dreary Start to the Week

Scott Leave a comment

This week will start out on the dreary side as a series of low pressure systems bring rain to southern Manitoba. Some parts of southern Manitoba may even see a bit of snow by midweek.

A low pressure system will bring light rain to parts of southern Manitoba on Monday
A low pressure system will bring light rain to parts of southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Today will feature mainly cloudy skies and light rain showers as a low pressure system passes through southern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts in the Winnipeg region are expected to be under 2 mm, but areas further north may see slightly higher amounts. Winds will be light and temperatures will be relatively mild (near 10C), so conditions will generally be comfortable outside of the rain showers.

Tuesday

More rain appears to be on tap for Tuesday as we come under the influence of another low pressure system pushing up from the south. Like Monday, accumulations are expected to be small, with amounts of only around 2 mm expected. It will be windier and cooler than Monday though, with temperatures in the mid single digits and breezy north-east winds.

Wednesday

Wednesday will see the continuation of Tuesday’s system with more rain likely in store. Accumulations will probably range from 2-4mm in the Red River Valley. There is a chance of snow in the higher terrain of western Manitoba, but it is too early to say how much could fall. Temperatures will be in the low to mid single digits with a breezy north-west wind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to strongly hint at above-normal weather for the first half of November. The combination of a positive Arctic Oscillation and the increasing influence of El Nino will allow Pacific air to continue moving across the Prairies while preventing significant Arctic air masses from surging southward. That isn’t to say we won’t get cold weather this November, but it certainly seems most likely that warmer conditions will dominate. Given that the normal high for this time of year is only 3C, “warm weather” will be a relative term from this point forward.

Milder, Showery Weather on Tap For The Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Milder weather is pushing into the Red River Valley to round out October, making for a comparatively pleasant Halloween evening compared to some of the years past. There will be several chances for precipitation, though, as the same pattern that is bringing the warmer weather to our region will also bring several disturbances rippling through as well.

Today will be a fairly pleasant day for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as temperatures begin to climb above seasonal values thanks to a warm front pushing eastwards through the province. Here in Winnipeg, temperatures should climb to around 9°C under mixed to mainly cloudy skies with winds increasing out of the south to around 30km/h. There will be a very slight chance of a shower this afternoon, although for the most part, it looks like things should stay north of the city.

RPDS Precipitation Forecast for October 31, 2015 (12hr. Cumulative)
The RDPS is forecasting around 2-5mm of rain for the Red River Valley on Saturday

Skies will clear this evening and temperatures will dip to a low near 3°C. More clouds will begin pushing in overnight as a low pressure system moves towards the province from Alberta.

Rainy Halloween Clears Out In Time For Trick or Treating

Saturday will be off to a cloudy and rainy start as an area of showers moves into the region alongside a low pressure system moving through. The cloud and showers will stick around through much of the morning and into the afternoon before finally tapering off sometime mid-to-late afternoon. Winds will start out of the south at around 20km/h, shift to the west-northwest late in the afternoon to 25–35km/h, and then diminish overnight.

The high temperature will be around 10°C. Total rainfall expected will be low at just a couple of mm.

Conditions for trick or treating will be great this year. There may be a few showers lingering around late in the afternoon or early in the evening, but they should clear out fairly quickly in the evening. Temperatures will be mild, hovering between 8–10°C through much of the evening, while the winds will be a bit breezy from the west, but diminishing as the evening wears on. All in all, it will be quite a pleasant evening!

More Showers Possible Sunday

Sunday will see another chance for shower activity, thanks to a low pressure system zipping along the international border. It will be another mainly cloudy day with highs near the 10°C mark and relatively light northeasterly winds for much of the Red River Valley. Precipitation amounts are expected to be fairly minimal, so despite the somewhat gloomy-seeming forecast, it could end up being a relatively pleasant day, especially considering that we’re talking about +10°C highs in November!

Daylight Savings This Weekend

Just a friendly reminder that this weekend we set our clocks back an hour! Daylight savings time ends this Sunday, November 1st at 2AM, so remember to set your clock back an hour on Saturday night before you head to bed!

Chilly Mid-Week, Gradual Return to Above-Normal Temperatures

Brad Leave a comment

Today will be off to a chilly start as rain showers or flurries move through the Red River Valley alongside near-freezing temperatures and a gusty northwesterly wind. Fortunately, this brief outbreak of colder weather will be short-lived as above-normal temperatures gradually build back into the region for the weekend.

Cool & Soggy Wednesday

It will be cool and soggy today for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a brisk west to northwesterly wind carries flurries & showers through the region. Much of today’s precipitation will fall as rain, however for several hours this morning snow will be possible. No significant accumulations are expected since temperatures (and the ground) will be above zero, but it could be enough to dust grassy areas and cars.

Temperatures will be below-normal today with the high temperature topping out at just 6°C.

RDPS 12hr QPF valid for 00Z Wednesday October 28, 2015
RDPS 12hr precipitation totals valid for 00Z Wednesday October 28, 2015

The wind will be out of the north to northwest for much of the day at around 30km/h with some gustiness on top of that, however as an inverted trough passes through late in the afternoon & the pressure gradient straightens out, winds will increase to 40–50km/h this evening for several hours before tapering off as a ridge of high pressure pushes in overnight. Temperatures will drop to around 2°C overnight.

Warming Trend for Second Half of the Week

Thursday and Friday will be slightly more pleasant days with temperatures gradually returning to seasonal values. Both days will see a fair amount of cloud through the Red River Valley, although Thursday has the potential for a few more sunny breaks than Friday does. Daytime highs will be just above the seasonal value of 6°C on both days with a high of 7°C expected on Thursday and a high of 9°C on Friday. No precipitation is expected on either day and overnight lows will sit near the freezing mark both Thursday & Friday nights.

Well Above-Normal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

Snow suits will be absent for Halloween this year as temperatures some 6°C above normal will result in a relatively mild end to October.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook is predicting a fair chance for above-normal temperatures early next week.

Daytime highs in the low teens are expected this weekend and into the beginning of next week thanks to a broad zonal flow that will develop aloft, keeping the colder Arctic air in the north and spreading milder Pacific air across the southern Prairies.

There’s a bit of uncertainty as to precipitation; most models show a dry weekend ahead, however the GFS wants to push a disturbance through midday Saturday bringing a shot of rain to the Red River Valley. We’ll keep an eye out as that situation develops and be sure to have a complete Halloween evening forecast in our Friday forecast. Other than that, it does look like we’ll head into a more unsettled pattern next week, with potentially the first “real” snowfall of the season, so enjoy the coming mild weather while you can!

Pleasant Monday, but Change is Coming

Scott Leave a comment

Monday will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba, with slightly above seasonal temperatures and light winds. However, change is on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong low pressure system approaches the region.

A low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday
A low pressure system will bring rain to southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday

Monday

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the upper single digits under mainly sunny skies and light winds. There may be some low cloud in the morning, but it should dissipate by the afternoon. Enjoy today, because the rest of the week won’t be quite so pleasant!

Tuesday

A low pressure system will move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday, bringing with it some light rainfall. Accumulations aren’t expected to be large, probably only 2-4 mm in the Red River Valley. Winds will be from the south-east at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h.

Wednesday

Tuesday’s system will stick around on Wednesday, bringing more rainfall to southern Manitoba. Additional accumulations of 5-10 mm look probable at this point, although it’s too early to make any firm predictions. The wind will make it feel quite unpleasant, with speeds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to suggest a generally above-normal trend as we move into November. There will likely be a fair amount of variability in the weather as we continue moving deeper into fall, but that is not abnormal for this time of year. The interesting thing to watch moving forward will be the impact of El Nino on our weather. Typically, the effects of El Nino become stronger as we move into winter, so we will see if that is what happens this year.