Showery Weather Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A persistant Arctic vortex over the Eastern Arctic will continue reinforcing a westerly to northwesterly flow over the Prairies which has been bringing cooler summer weather to Southern Manitoba. Multiple disturbances are forecast to track down in the northwesterly flow which will produce a showery second half to the week.

Wednesday

22°C / 13°C
Increasing cloudiness then showers with a risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Thursday

21°C / 11°C
Cloudy with scattered showers. Windy.
Friday

22°C / 10°C
Mainly sunny.

We’ll see a fairly cloudy day today as temperatures climb to only around 22°C. A trough of low pressure will work it’s way into and through the Red River Valley bringing scattered showers with the risk of a thunderstorm through much of the day and the early evening. No severe weather is expected. Skies should clear overnight as we drop to a low of around 13°C.

On Thursday a second – more potent – system will begin working it’s way through the province. Clouds will roll in early on Thursday as an upper disturbance tracks an area of rain through the Interlake. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll likely see another round of scattered showers starting midday with the winds picking up out of the north to around 30km/h with gusts to 50 or 60km/h. Thunderstorms aren’t expected and we’ll see a high near 21°C. Things will clear out overnight as we head to a low of about 11°C.

Friday will bring more stable weather with mainly sunny skies and a high of 22°C. Winds will continue to be breezy through the morning but should begin to let up in the afternoon. Things look very pleasant through the weekend with mainly sunny skies and highs in the mid–20’s with overnight lows in the 12–13°C range.

Mixed, Mild Weather Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A northwesterly flow building over the province will bring mild temperatures and bouts of unsettled weather with little in the way of severe storm threats, making for a fairly pleasant week overall.

Monday

21°C / 12°C
Mostly cloudy; clearing late in the day.
Tuesday

24°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday

24°C / 12°C
Cloudy periods. Chance of showers in the evening.

Today will be marked by relatively cloudy skies with a breezy northwesterly wind as the low pressure system that brought severe thunderstorms to Southern Manitoba yesterday slowly moves out of the province. This has ushered in cooler air once again which will keep our temperatures fairly cool for the next few days – we’re expecting daytime highs to only climb into the low-to-mid 20’s and overnight lows to sit near the 12–13°C mark.

Tuesday will be a pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and a high near 24°C and while there’s a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday evening, it really is an outside chance and much more likely to happen over SW Manitoba than over the Red River Valley.

500mb upper trough approaching Manitoba from the Northern Prairies on Wednesday evening (from the GFS).

500mb upper trough approaching Manitoba from the Northern Prairies on Wednesday evening (from the GFS).

On Wednesday we’ll see a chance of showers later in the day under a mixed sky as a long-wave trough rotates towards Southern Manitoba from the Northern Prairies. At this point it doesn’t look too energetic and there’s little in the way of thunderstorms expected. We’ll se a high near 22°C and a low once agin in the 12–13°C range.

Elsewhere in Weather News: July 20th, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Severe Weather Outbreak in Southern Ontario; Numerous Warnings Issued Friday

On Friday, severe weather rolled across much of southern Ontario, southern Quebec and nearby states such as Michigan and New York. Severe weather was imminent in the region as a strong squall line of storms formed with some bowing segments in the morning and continued into a great thunderstorm environment as the afternoon wore on. CAPE values were quite high, shear sufficient and for any storms that remained discrete, a decent tornado potential was there before getting absorbed into the squall line. This prompted a plethora of warnings to be issued, including numerous tornado warnings throughout the day.

Wind damage was the biggest concern on Friday though, numerous reports of wind gusts exceeding 100km/h and even one report as high as 119km/h in Waterloo Ont., were reported. In turn, significant damage was reported across southern Ontario; mature trees knocked down, trees falling on homes and winds flattening crops. As of Friday night 550,000 people were still without power in Quebec and Ontario due to winds knocking down power lines and trees falling on lines. Storm survey teams are expected to head out to various spots across southern Ontario tomorrow to determine if damage was caused by straight-line winds or a tornado touching down. Two unconfirmed funnel clouds had been reported around the towns of Bradford and Barrie, Ontario. Unfortunately one person has died and ten more have been injured because of falling tree limbs; this is a reminder to people that even though a tornado might not be imminent, it’s better to take cover as a storm approaches.

Downed tree

Large trees downed in Toronto by strong winds produced in Friday’s storms. (Source: City News)

The cold front behind this system will put end to Ontario’s heatwave. Many cities in southern Ontario, including Toronto, had reached “official” heatwave status by reaching 32°C three days in a row. This combined with high humidity values made for excessive heat, therefore it’s likely that most residents will welcome the cooler and drier air on Sunday.

Nice Days Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

After a very active week across Southern Manitoba, a cold front passed through yesterday that is ushering in a ridge of high pressure that will set us up for a pleasant weekend.

Friday

24°C / 10°C
Mainly sunny.
Saturday

20°C / 10°C
Mainly sunny.
Sunday

24°C / 10°C
Sunny.

A second cold front will be passing through southern Manitoba today however not nearly as much thunderstorm activity is expected with it as the hot, humid air that brought yesterday’s storms has been washed out of the province. A few non-severe thunderstorms are likely over the SW corner of the province and there’s a very slight chance of a thundershower over the Red River Valley, although if that were to happen it would likely be confined to the southern portions closer to the International Border.

A cool air mass will be pushing it with the ridge of high pressure which will allow our overnight lows to drop to around 10°C overnight, which is quite cool for the middle of July. Daytime highs will climb to the mid-20’s today, only to around 20°C on Saturday, then back to the mid-20’s on Sunday.

The start of next week is a little uncertain with some models hinting at another batch of severe thunderstorms on Monday night. We’ll keep you posted!