Flurries Start Off A Cool Weekend

Today will start off with flurries moving through the Red River Valley, setting the stage for a snap of cool weather that will bring temperatures well below seasonal. While temperatures will rebound slowly through the weekend, it will hardly be beautiful spring weather.

Today will be a rude awakening for many, as cold temperatures combine with a weak disturbance rolling through the region to produce widespread light flurry activity through the Red River Valley. Some places might get lucky enough to see things change over to scattered showers briefly this afternoon, but for the most part, expect some light snow for much of the morning and into the afternoon. Fortunately, the snow won't really stick and no accumulation is expected.

In addition to the snow, the winds will continue to be strong out of the northwest at 40 gusting 60km/h with a daytime high that just barely gets to 5°C.1 Temperatures will dip to near the -4°C mark tonight with clearing skies. Near the core of Winnipeg it's not as likely that there will be a hard freeze, but certainly near the outer edges of the city and into the rural areas a significant freeze is likely so you may want to take precautions if you've any sensitive plants outside already.

GDPS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly
The 850mb temperature anomaly forecast shows a large core of below-seasonal (blue) temperatures over Manitoba today.

Saturday will finally bring out the sun in Winnipeg, but it will continue to be chilly with a daytime high of 9°C under mainly sunny skies. Winds will continue out of the northwest, but be slightly weaker at 20km/h or so. Expect a low near the freezing mark on Saturday night with partly cloudy skies and light winds.

Sunday will see another disturbance moving through the province in the northwest flow. More cloud will move into Winnipeg alongside slightly warmer temperatures; daytime highs are expected to climb into the mid-teens! A band of showers will likely move through in the afternoon, bringing a decent chance of precipitation to most areas in the Red River Valley. Winds will vary through the Red River Valley from light to around 30km/h. Expect a low on Sunday night near 3°C with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range: Climbing To Seasonal

Looking ahead to the start of next week, it appears that temperatures will make a continued climb back towards seasonal, however the with a stubborn upper trough refusing to leave the area, that could end up taking longer than expected. Conditions aren't expected to be too bad with a good mix of sun and cloud and highs in the mid- to upper-teens. There will be a slight chance of showers.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

  1. Nearly 15°C below normal for daytime highs right now in Winnipeg.

Arctic Blast Incoming

A major shift in the overall weather pattern will bring a blast of Arctic air to Winnipeg for the end of the week, ushered in by unpleasant and strong northerly winds and the now-infamous Polar Vortex. Fortunately, the cold snap looks to be short-lived as the coldest air will rotate off towards Eastern Canada quickly and near-seasonal temperatures return early next week.

Today will remain pleasant with above-seasonal warmth in place as temperatures climb to around the 9°C mark for Winnipeg’s daytime high. Skies will start off sunny, but become mixed through the afternoon as cloud begins spreading in ahead of a low pressure system that will impact the province later today and tomorrow. Showers and flurries will push into western Manitoba this afternoon, but will remain west of the Red River Valley for the most part until tomorrow.

Here in Winnipeg, skies will be cloudy tonight as the temperature drops to a low near 0°C.

RDPS 12hr. precipitation forecast valid 00Z Friday April 1, 2016
Scattered showers and flurries are expected across Southern Manitoba on Thursday

Thursday will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries throughout much of the day. The first of two cold fronts will swing through in the afternoon, ushering in strong northerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h. Temperatures will climb to 4-5°C for the daytime high, but much cooler air will work into the region tonight, sending overnight lows to around -8°C.

Friday will also bring cloudy skies with a high near +2°C as another low pressure system moves through brining a decent chance for some more snowfall through the afternoon/evening. Behind the system, another shot of strong northerly winds, this time as strong as 50 gusting to 70 km/h. Temperatures will fall to a low near -10°C on Friday night.

Long Range

The weekend will be cool with below-normal temperatures as the Polar Vortex grazes Manitoba as it rotates eastwards into Ontario.

The Polar Vortex is easily seen by abnormal 500 mb heights (pictured above over Ontario in pink/purple) and will bring below-normal temperatures to much of Manitoba throughout the weekend with daytime highs near the freezing mark. Alongside the cool weather will also come mainly cloudy skies, but no precipitation is expected.

Temperatures will rebound back towards seasonal next week with precipitation confined to a weak disturbance mid-week that could potentially bring a couple cm of snow or few mm of rain, depending on temperatures & timing.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -6°C.

Flurries Bring More Cold Weather

A disturbance passing through southwestern Manitoba today will spread a few flurries into the Red River Valley through the day today, while snow giving accumulations remains to our west where a further 2-4 cm of snow is expected to fall. Another blast of Arctic air will plunge southwards behind this system, plunging temperatures 10-15°C below normal by the end of the week.

A few flurries will be in place throughout Winnipeg and the Red River Valley today as a low pressure system passes through southwestern Manitoba. West of the Valley, through Parkland & southwest Manitoba, the snowfall will be more organized, with between 2 to 4 cm piling up by the end of the day.

Amounts diminish quickly to the east, however, with only a dusting in the Red River Valley. The flurries will taper off by the evening, leaving us with mostly cloudy skies.

Temperature wise, today will be the best day of the week. Daytime highs should climb to around -14°C in Winnipeg today with winds out of the southeast between 10-20 km/h. Temperatures will be cool tonight, but the cloud cover will help moderate things ever so slightly. The overnight low in Winnipeg will fall to near -23°C with light northwesterly winds.

The story for the remainder of the work week is simple: Arctic air building in. Behind Wednesday’s low, an Arctic ridge will build southeastwards, ushering in colder air that will result in temperatures near 10°C below normal by Friday.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 18Z Friday February 12, 2016
The GDPS is showing 850mb temperatures nearly 10°C below normal for Winnipeg on Friday.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy as we remain relatively close to a strong frontal boundary to our west. As a result, temperatures will be similar to Wednesday but just a degree or two colder. That means in Winnipeg I expect to see a high near -15°C with winds remaining fairly light out of the west to northwest. Some cloud will begin breaking up on Thursday night as the ridge begins pushing into the southern Prairies, and the overnight low will dip to around -25 or -26°C under light northerly winds.

Friday will see clearing as the Arctic ridge moves over Southern Manitoba. This will be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures struggling to climb above -20°C. Friday night will be the coldest night of the week, with temperatures dipping precariously close to the -30°C mark, if not below it. Throughout the whole time, winds will remain light.

Long Range: Big-Time Warm-Up In The Cards?

While the cold weather will likely persist into the weekend, all signs point towards a dramatic warm-up for the beginning of next week and potentially persisting well through the week.

The first of several Pacific-sourced systems is expected to track across the Prairies on Monday, spreading warmer air eastwards as the Polar Vortex begins shifting eastwards. This system is forecast to be followed up by a much, much stronger system that is showing the potential of bringing significant amounts of warm air to the eastern Prairies. The potential for daytime highs above 0°C returns for the second half of next week.

Of course, along with any big warm-up, the potential exists for some particularly uncomfortable days with strong southerly winds and it’s currently unclear on where exactly precipitation associated with these systems will fall. More on that later this week!

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -20°C.

A Much Cooler Start to the Week

After last week’s high heat and humidity, the much cooler conditions this week will come as a relief to many. However, it might be a little bit too cool, with temperatures only hovering around 20C.

Today will be cool, but fairly pleasant. Temperatures will be near the 20C mark in southern Manitoba under a mixture of sun and cloud. Winds will be light as a surface ridge of high pressure will be in place over southern Manitoba. Portions of western Manitoba may have a slight chance of a shower, but otherwise no precipitation is expected.

Forecast 500mb Winds with Jetstream Annotation from the RDPS
A deep trough over the Central Prairies will deflect the jet stream well to our south, bringing unseasonably cool weather to most of the Prairies.

Tuesday will see little change in conditions from Monday. High temperatures will remain near 20C, with mainly sunny skies. Winds will be from the north-east at 20km/h.

Wednesday will once again be seasonably cool with temperatures in the low twenties. Skies are expected to be a mixture of sun and cloud with breezy winds out of the north.

Long Range

The long range forecast shows generally seasonable to below seasonable temperatures in southern Manitoba over the next week. However, we may see more surges of warm air as move move toward the end of the month.