Hot Friday Leads To Unsettled Weekend

After a hot Friday, a series of disturbances moving through the region will usher in unsettled conditions.

Before the weather turns, Winnipeg will see a Friday of full on summer heat. Southerly winds will strengthen to 30 gusting 50 km/h with temperatures climbing to a high near 30°C. Those southerly winds will also bring more humidity into the region; dew points will rise to around 17°C today producing humidex values in the mid 30s. Skies will stay sunny for much of the day, but by the afternoon an approaching trough of low pressure will begin to spread cloud into the region.

ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook valid July 17, 2020
Severe thunderstorms are likely over southwestern Manitoba this afternoon with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms extending eastwards across the Red River Valley this evening. View the full ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook in our Bulletin Viewer.

Through the afternoon and evening hours, the city will see a chance of thunderstorms. The best support for severe activity is over southwestern Manitoba, there will still be a risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the Red River Valley. Thunderstorm activity will primarily develop along the trough, however a secondary area of thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front following in its wake. Much of the activity will push southwards into North Dakota through the evening hours.

GDPS 12 Hour Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 06Z Saturday July 18, 2020
The heaviest rainfall from thunderstorms today is expected closer to the international border.

Skies will stay mixed through the night with temperatures dipping to a low near 17°C. The wind will ease through the early evening.

Saturday will bring cloudier skies to the city, but temperatures should still climb into the mid-20s. Winds will pick up out of the west-northwest in the morning into the 20 to 30 km/h range. A shortwave moving through in the afternoon will likely bring some showers or even a few rumbles of thunder to the Red River Valley. This system is not expected to produce any severe weather. The westerly winds will ease the humidity in the region and allow temperatures to drop into the mid-teens on Saturday night. The city will again see mixed skies through the night.

On Sunday, the upper low responsible for the unsettled pattern will slump through the region, bringing another day of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will reach a high in the low 20s with northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop north of the region in the morning, then slump south through the afternoon. Skies should finally clear out on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Near-seasonal temperatures will persist through the first half of the week with another chance for rain on Tuesday. In the second half of the week, a warming trend will develop alongside the potential for more thunderstorm activity.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Summer Heat Turns Unsettled for the Weekend

Warm and humid conditions will turn unsettled this weekend as an upper trough moves towards the region.

Winnipeg will continue to see seasonably warm and humid weather through the weekend. The biggest difference, though, will be increasingly unsettled conditions developing over the coming days. An advancing upper trough and several disturbances rippling through the region ahead of it will be responsible for ushering in the change.

Today, temperatures will quickly climb back up into the 30s with a high near 32°C this afternoon. Dew points will continue to hover near 20°C, producing humidex values of 38 to 40. The city will see increasing cloud this evening, but thunderstorm activity this evening will likely stay to east and south. Temperatures will head to a low near 20°C tonight.

Saturday will be a rather unsettled day across the region as an upper trough moves in. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the day and showers and thunderstorms will blossom across the region in the morning. Winnipeg will most likely see at least some of this activity, if not much of this activity. With the humid air mass still in place, the thunderstorms may be severe with the primary threats of localized flooding due to torrential rains and damaging hail. It won’t be stormy all day, but the potential for thunderstorms will persist right into the night before settling down early Sunday morning.

NAM MLCAPE Forecast valid 18Z Saturday July 4, 2020
MLCAPE values – a measure of how much energy thunderstorms can extract from the atmosphere to work with – will climb to high levels on Saturday over the Red River Valley ahead of an approaching upper trough.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Sunday with fairly benign weather over the region. It will still be warm and humid, and calm winds will make it feel rather sticky. A cool front pushing through in the evening will again bring the risk of (severe) thunderstorms to the region. Conditions will settle down overnight with pleasant weather returning for the start of next week.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will kick off with a nice break from the heat. Highs will still climb into the upper 20s, but the humidity will drop off to much more comfortable values. Unsettled conditions will redevelop mid-week with increasing humidity as a low pressure system moves through the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Summer Heat Going Nowhere

Winnipeg will see slightly cooler temperatures today, but the sweltering heat will build right back into the region.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in Winnipeg today behind a cold front that moved through overnight. Rather than the highs in the low 30s seen over the past few days, the city will “only” reach around 28°C. One notable difference will be that the humidity will ease into the mid-teens making things a little bit more comfortable. The city will see a bit of lingering cloud this morning with a chance of a shower or two, then skies will clear in the afternoon. It won’t be too windy, either, with southerlies near 20 km/h.

Unfortunately, there won’t be much relief for in the overnight lows. Warmer air will already be building back into the region tonight as the upper ridge begins rebounding into the region. The city will see a low near 17°C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Thursday July 2, 2020
Hot, increasingly humid weather will return to the region on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will bring plenty of sunshine to the region with temperatures climbing back into the low 30s. The humidity will surge back as well, sending humidex values back into the upper 30s. The wind will be more prominent on Thursday out of the south at 30 gusting 50 km/h, but Friday should bring calmer conditions with light southerlies.

For both nights, lows will head back into the 20 to 23°C range. The risk of thunderstorms – with severe weather possible given the hot and humid air mass – will return on Friday night for much of southern Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

The upper ridge will begin to collapse on the weekend, replaced by a west-southwest flow aloft. This will continue to keep temperatures warm, but it’s likely the region will end up seeing a bit more cloud with occasional chances for showers or thunderstorms. Conditions will settle next week with generally sunny conditions.

No notable break in the heat is in the forecast. The humidity levels are forecast to ease slightly for next week, but the city will continue to see daytime highs in the 28 to 31°C range and overnight lows of 18 to 20°C.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Sweltering Summer Heat Continues

Hot, humid weather continues in Winnipeg this week with a chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

The upper ridge that has brought a hot and humid air mass to the province isn’t going anywhere any time soon. As a result, neither will the heat. Temperatures over the next couple days will continue to climb into the low 30s during the day and dip to the low 20s at night. Along with this heat, dew points in the low 20s will produce humid conditions with humidex values climbing towards 40.

Winnipeg will see a bit of cloud over the next couple days with winds out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday June 30, 2020
Hot, humid conditions will continue over southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a “cold” front will push across the region, bringing more cloud and some showers with the risk of a thunderstorm. Given the hot and humid air mass in place, there will likely be a risk for severe thunderstorms in the region. What exactly it will look like, though, will depend significantly on the evolution of the system over the next two days as it brings more rounds of severe thunderstorms to southeastern Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool slightly behind the cool front on Wednesday, but the heat quickly returns for Friday into the weekend. Highs will climb back into the low 30s with humidity returning to the region. It appears that a reprieve from the heat (or at least the humidity) is likely after the weekend.

Stay safe and enjoy the summer weather as best you can!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.