Elsewhere in Weather News: March 7th, 2015

Winter Storm Races across Southern, Midwest US

This past week a strong late season winter storm made its way across the southern and east-central parts of the United States bringing with it all kinds of precipitation: rain, snow, ice pellets and freezing rain. An Arctic front pushing south across the region was the culprit for the mixed precipitation types. Warm air was able to ride over the cooler air racing south near the surface which made for a melting layer above ground and able to melt/partly melt the precipitation. Before it reached the ground the precipitation encountered below freezing temperatures once again which resulted in the freezing rain, or ice pellets if the melting layer was not as deep.

Sounding from Little Rock, AR show a melting layer with below-freezing temperatures closer to the surface.  Black line is the 0°C isotherm.
Sounding from Little Rock, AR show a melting layer with below-freezing temperatures closer to the surface. Black line is the 0°C isotherm.

Large traffic jams on the freeways due to accidents, school closures and power outages were the result of the storm and 13 deaths across several states were directly related to the storm. Impressive and unusual snow amounts for this time of the year were recorded anywhere from Dallas, Texas to Lexington, Kentucky. Here are a few impressive amounts recorded from the storm, provided by the National Weather Service:

  • Lexington, KY: two-day total of 43.4cm (all-time two day record)
  • Tupelo, MS: one-day total of 18.5cm (second snowiest day on record)
  • Dallas, TX: storm total of 8.9cm
[map type=”terrain” autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Lexington[/pin] [pin]Tupelo[/pin] [pin]Dallas[/pin] [/map]

No more snow is expected in the near future, but record-breaking cold temperatures followed last night. Warmer and closer to normal temperatures are on the way for next week as a pattern change takes place and colder air remains locked up further north.

Elsewhere in Weather News: February 28th, 2015

Middle East Sees Snow and Associated Avalanche Danger

This past week the Middle East saw some interesting weather associated with a slow-moving low pressure system that made its way all the way from Turkey to northern India.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin tooltip=”Istanbul”]41.005270, 28.97696[/pin] [pin tooltip=”Panjshir”]35.335047, 69.716778[/pin] [/map]

The system first impacted Istanbul, Turkey last week which significantly affected travel across the city as it dropped significant amounts of snow. Most of the precipitation in the region came as rainfall ahead of the low pressure system, but cold air wrapped around on the back side of the system resulted in snow squalls developing off the warm waters of the Black Sea. These snow squalls that formed dropped anywhere from 5 to 20cm, and even locally higher amounts in eastern Istanbul. With the snow that fell earlier in the week, in addition to the fresh snow, one part of the eastern township of Istanbul was able to break its snowfall depth record by recording a snow depth record of 75cm. In other parts of Istanbul depths generally ranged from 20 to 40cm. As many as 200 flights were cancelled as a result of the snow and numerous trees could be seen snapped across the city.

Radar image of strong snow  squalls coming off the Black Sea last week.
Radar image of strong snow squalls coming off the Black Sea last week.

Weather in Istanbul is expected to remain above the freezing mark for the weekend, thus the melt that has been ongoing late this past week will continue. Although it’s not unheard of to get snow in the winter in Istanbul, the average snow depth usually remains below 10cm for the winter months. No more snowfall is expected in the next week or so for the city.

The storm slowly continued its trek east dropping more snow and mixed precipitation in Middle East countries such as Israel and Jordan before reaching Afghanistan. Afghanistan and northern India saw major snowfall as a result of this system, especially at higher elevations. As much as 100cm fell in northeast Afghanistan, enhanced by local topography. Several avalanches were also triggered in the region of Panjshir and buried over 100 houses that were located on a mountainside, leading to the deaths of over 200 hundred residents sadly. The northeast part of Afghanistan is a fairly poor region of the country with houses built in dangerous locations that are prone to avalanches and landslides – deadly avalanches are not unheard of and have last occurred in 2012.

Mild & Cloudy Weather Ahead

The warmer weather has finally made its way to Manitoba with temperatures expected to climb well above normal today. The surge of warmth is thanks to a weak low pressure system pushing through the Interlake today which also bring some light snow to Southern Manitoba today. Above-normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week in what will be a very pleasant mid-January break from the cold.

Wednesday

-3°C / -8°C
Snow beginning this morning.

Thursday

-5°C / -18°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries.

Friday

-5°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy, light snow likely

Today’s weather will be driven by a low pressure system tracking through the Interlake region. Light snow will spread eastwards across Southern Manitoba through the morning period with most areas seeing the snow taper off by mid-afternoon. Generally, a couple cm of snow is expected, however slightly higher amounts of 3–4cm may fall through the Interlake. Winds will be gusty out of the south at 30–40km/h until the evening when the winds will diminish and shift to the southwest. Expect a high near –3 or –2°C today.

This 12hr. precipitation totals panel from the RDPS shows 1-2.5mm of precipitation over Manitoba today, equivalent to anywhere from 1 - 3cm of snow.
This 12hr. precipitation totals panel from the RDPS shows 1–2.5mm of precipitation over Manitoba today, equivalent to anywhere from 1 – 3cm of snow.

The clouds may break up a bit overnight, however it should remain on the mostly cloudy side. Our low temperature will fall to around –8°C.

Thursday will bring mixed skies and a slight chance of flurries as a weak frontal boundary works through the Red River Valley. Highs will sit near –5°. Skies should clear out on Thursday night, allowing temperatures to drop significantly to around –18°C for a low.

More cloud returns on Friday as another low pressure system works into the province. Not much snow is expected with it, but light snow over much of Southern Manitoba looks likely. Highs will climb to around –5°C with lows on Friday night at around –8°C.

The milder, somewhat cloudy weather is expected to persist through the weekend before returning to more seasonal values[1] for next week.


  1. Normal daytime highs are around –13°C for this time of year in Winnipeg.  ↩

Alberta Clipper Plunges Manitoba Into The Deep Freeze

An Alberta Clipper moving through the province on Friday into Saturday will pack a potent punch – likely the worst storm so far this winter for most places, including Winnipeg – bringing a decent shot of snow alongside strong winds producing significant blowing snow. To cap things off, a bitterly cold air mass will move into the region bringing extremely cold temperatures & wind chill.

Friday
-14°C / -21°C
Early morning flurries, then snow beginning late in the day
Saturday
⇓ -26°C / -32°C
Snow tapering off then clearing; windy & cold
Sunday
-27°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny

Friday will start off mainly cloudy as a brief shot of light snow exits the province. Amounts from this band will be just a couple cm or less and this leading impulse will be nothing compared to what will be moving in later in the day.

Before that, though, skies will become more mixed with temperatures gradually climbing to around –14°C. Winds will remain relatively light until the Alberta Clipper moves into the region tonight.

Snow will push into Southwestern & Parkland Manitoba this afternoon and quickly spread eastwards across the remainder of the province by the evening. Snowfall will be quite intense, with rates reaching as much as 2cm/hr in the heaviest band. The heaviest snow will fall through Friday night and then taper off from west to east through the day on Saturday.

Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.
Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.

By the time the snow tapers off on Saturday, up to 25cm of snow may have fallen through the heaviest band of snow which is centered along the international border and cuts across the Southern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will likely receive on the higher end of 10–15cm of snow while amounts then taper off through the northern Parkland region and central Interlake.

Measuring that snow may be quite difficult, though, as strong northwesterly winds to 40km/h move into the Red River Valley. With all the fresh snow, widespread blowing snow is very likely on area highways with the potential for significant restrictions to visibility. In areas of the southern Red River Valley, we may even see the development of a full-on blizzard with the higher amount of fresh snowfall and slightly stronger winds due to the funnelling of the valley. Driving conditions will likely be quite poor, so be sure to give yourself plenty of additional time if you need to travel and remember to always carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle.


There’s only one story once the snow tapers off on Saturday and skies begin to clear: bitter cold. It’s going to get very, very cold across the entire province with the coldest air mass of the season diving southwards behind the clipper. Saturday will see temperatures slipping through the day to around –26°C which will then plummet down to –32 or –33°C overnight. With winds of 10–20km/h persisting overnight, wind chill values of –40 to –45 will be widespread through Southern Manitoba.[1]

Sunday will bring barely any recovery with temperatures struggling to get to a paltry –27°C. Expect the low on Sunday night to dip back down to –32 or –33°C with wind chills agin in the –40 to –45 range.

No Warmth In The Long-Range

Looking ahead to next week, conditions look dry with little to offer as reprieve from the cold. Daytime highs will moderate towards the –20°C mark, but overnight lows in the low minus-twenties will be sticking around for a while.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook.

Looking even further ahead, there are little in the way of strong signals. There’s about a 50/50 chance of below-seasonal temperatures continuing, but compared to this week, it’s at least a trend towards more seasonal temperatures. It’s not much, but when we’re getting as cold as we will this weekend, I’ll take what I can get.


  1. This will likely result in an extreme cold warning being issued by Environment Canada, as their criteria is a temperature or wind chill colder than –40.  ↩