The warmer weather has finally made its way to Manitoba with temperatures expected to climb well above normal today. The surge of warmth is thanks to a weak low pressure system pushing through the Interlake today which also bring some light snow to Southern Manitoba today. Above-normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week in what will be a very pleasant mid-January break from the cold.
Wednesday
-3°C / -8°C
Snow beginning this morning.
Thursday
-5°C / -18°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries.
Friday
-5°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy, light snow likely
Today’s weather will be driven by a low pressure system tracking through the Interlake region. Light snow will spread eastwards across Southern Manitoba through the morning period with most areas seeing the snow taper off by mid-afternoon. Generally, a couple cm of snow is expected, however slightly higher amounts of 3–4cm may fall through the Interlake. Winds will be gusty out of the south at 30–40km/h until the evening when the winds will diminish and shift to the southwest. Expect a high near –3 or –2°C today.
This 12hr. precipitation totals panel from the RDPS shows 1–2.5mm of precipitation over Manitoba today, equivalent to anywhere from 1 – 3cm of snow.
The clouds may break up a bit overnight, however it should remain on the mostly cloudy side. Our low temperature will fall to around –8°C.
Thursday will bring mixed skies and a slight chance of flurries as a weak frontal boundary works through the Red River Valley. Highs will sit near –5°. Skies should clear out on Thursday night, allowing temperatures to drop significantly to around –18°C for a low.
More cloud returns on Friday as another low pressure system works into the province. Not much snow is expected with it, but light snow over much of Southern Manitoba looks likely. Highs will climb to around –5°C with lows on Friday night at around –8°C.
The milder, somewhat cloudy weather is expected to persist through the weekend before returning to more seasonal values[1] for next week.
Normal daytime highs are around –13°C for this time of year in Winnipeg. ↩
An Alberta Clipper moving through the province on Friday into Saturday will pack a potent punch – likely the worst storm so far this winter for most places, including Winnipeg – bringing a decent shot of snow alongside strong winds producing significant blowing snow. To cap things off, a bitterly cold air mass will move into the region bringing extremely cold temperatures & wind chill.
Friday
-14°C / -21°C
Early morning flurries, then snow beginning late in the day
Saturday
⇓ -26°C / -32°C
Snow tapering off then clearing; windy & cold
Sunday
-27°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny
Friday will start off mainly cloudy as a brief shot of light snow exits the province. Amounts from this band will be just a couple cm or less and this leading impulse will be nothing compared to what will be moving in later in the day.
Before that, though, skies will become more mixed with temperatures gradually climbing to around –14°C. Winds will remain relatively light until the Alberta Clipper moves into the region tonight.
Snow will push into Southwestern & Parkland Manitoba this afternoon and quickly spread eastwards across the remainder of the province by the evening. Snowfall will be quite intense, with rates reaching as much as 2cm/hr in the heaviest band. The heaviest snow will fall through Friday night and then taper off from west to east through the day on Saturday.
Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.
By the time the snow tapers off on Saturday, up to 25cm of snow may have fallen through the heaviest band of snow which is centered along the international border and cuts across the Southern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will likely receive on the higher end of 10–15cm of snow while amounts then taper off through the northern Parkland region and central Interlake.
Measuring that snow may be quite difficult, though, as strong northwesterly winds to 40km/h move into the Red River Valley. With all the fresh snow, widespread blowing snow is very likely on area highways with the potential for significant restrictions to visibility. In areas of the southern Red River Valley, we may even see the development of a full-on blizzard with the higher amount of fresh snowfall and slightly stronger winds due to the funnelling of the valley. Driving conditions will likely be quite poor, so be sure to give yourself plenty of additional time if you need to travel and remember to always carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle.
There’s only one story once the snow tapers off on Saturday and skies begin to clear: bitter cold. It’s going to get very, very cold across the entire province with the coldest air mass of the season diving southwards behind the clipper. Saturday will see temperatures slipping through the day to around –26°C which will then plummet down to –32 or –33°C overnight. With winds of 10–20km/h persisting overnight, wind chill values of –40 to –45 will be widespread through Southern Manitoba.[1]
Sunday will bring barely any recovery with temperatures struggling to get to a paltry –27°C. Expect the low on Sunday night to dip back down to –32 or –33°C with wind chills agin in the –40 to –45 range.
No Warmth In The Long-Range
Looking ahead to next week, conditions look dry with little to offer as reprieve from the cold. Daytime highs will moderate towards the –20°C mark, but overnight lows in the low minus-twenties will be sticking around for a while.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook.
Looking even further ahead, there are little in the way of strong signals. There’s about a 50/50 chance of below-seasonal temperatures continuing, but compared to this week, it’s at least a trend towards more seasonal temperatures. It’s not much, but when we’re getting as cold as we will this weekend, I’ll take what I can get.
This will likely result in an extreme cold warning being issued by Environment Canada, as their criteria is a temperature or wind chill colder than –40. ↩
Manitobans can enjoy slight relief from the bitter cold that has been in place the last few days as more seasonal temperatures are in place thanks to a fairly large low pressure system passing through Hudson Bay that has dragged the warm air all the way east from the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately, the milder weather will be short lived as a series of cold fronts sweep southwards into the United States ushering the colder air back into the region.
Wednesday
-11°C / -17°C
Mixed skies with a slight chance of flurries
Thursday
-14°C / -17°C
Increasing cloud
Friday
-15°C / -19°C
Partly cloudy
Temperatures will climb to around –11°C today with mixed skies as a warm front slides through the region from the northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries, particularly first thing in the morning and again in the evening into the overnight period, but otherwise it will be a seasonally nice day with westerly winds at 30–40km/h. Expect temperatures to drop to around –17°C tonight.
Thursday will be a bit of an in between day; a weak cold front passing through will bring daytime highs cooler than Wednesday – somewhere around –14°C or so – and a fairly sunny start to the day. By the afternoon, more cloud should begin working its way in from the west alongside the next low approaching from Saskatchewan. Little in the way of snow is expected here on Thursday or Thursday night and winds will be relatively light. Temperatures will dip back down to –17°C once again on Thursday night.
Friday will be the sunniest day of the second half of the week. A slight chance of some morning flurries will quickly clear out as we head to a high of around –15°C with light winds. However, a storm is brewing, and by Friday evening an Alberta clipper will be making its way into Southern Manitoba, set to pack a compact wallop as it moves through Friday night and Saturday.
End-of-Week Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm to Manitoba
An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track across Southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a significant shot of snow, strong winds, and then a plummet back into frigid Arctic air.
Note: Alberta clippers are compact systems whose impact depends significantly on their track. As we’re still several days out from this system, please take the following as just general guidance and remember that with a slight change in track, significant changes in the weather could be seen for any one location.
Snow will spread eastwards into southwestern Manitoba and the Parkland region on Friday evening, progressing across the remainder of the province through the evening hours. A relatively sharp deformation zone will set up across the Parkland & Interlake regions, limiting the northward extent of the snow. While many regions will see accumulating snow, the greatest amounts will be along the Trans-Canada corridor and the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.
By the time the snow stops on Saturday evening, around 10–15cm of snow may have fallen in a large swath encompassing much of the Trans-Canada corridor and areas south to the U.S. border. An area of higher snowfall will likely develop somewhere near the US border, perhaps just south into North Dakota, depending significantly on where & when the system pivots and begins heading E/NE instead of SE. In the core of heaviest snowfall, as much as 15–25cm of snowfall looks possible. Much of the Parkland and southern Interlake will see between 4–8cm, with amounts tapering off fairly quickly north of that.
In addition to the snow, this system will have fairly strong winds associated with it. Ahead of the low, easterly to northeasterly winds will strengthen to a gusty 30–40km/h. As the system passes through, winds will strengthen out of the northwest to around 50km/h with gusts as high as 70–75km/h. The strong northwesterly winds coupled with the ample fresh snow will likely produce blizzard conditions and make travel dangerous on Saturday. If you have travel plans, make a plan B in case this forecast happens to be right.
Temperatures will reach a high around –15°C on Saturday and then plummet to around –30°C on Saturday night with wind chill values near –45. Sunday looks clear and bitterly cold with a high of only around –26°C coupled with 20–30km/h winds that will produce wind chill values in the –35 to –40 range. If these wind chill values materalize, we’ll likely see extreme cold warnings issued for much of Southern Manitoba through the weekend.[1]
As mentioned, there is potentially significant variability to this forecast and what I’ve presented is the current most likely scenario. I’ll be keeping tabs on this system through the week and provide updates in the comments below and another full look at it in Friday morning’s blog post.
If the extreme cold occurs while blizzard conditions are ongoing, the blizzard warning would “include” the extreme cold. ↩
Warm weather will stick around until Christmas, a nice break for the holidays.
Mild conditions are expected in southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
0°C / -4°C
Light snow
Today will be very mild, but with some snow. A low pressure system off to the south will generate some light snow in southern Manitoba during the day, with accumulations of generally around 2cm expected. Given the mild temperatures, most snow should melt quickly off treated roads, making for mostly wet, as opposed to slippery, conditions.
Tuesday
Tuesday
-1°C / -8°C
Light snow
More light snow is expected on Tuesday as the system to the south remains in place. Accumulations of around 2cm will once again be possible. Temperatures will remain mild though, making for a decent day.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-3°C / -10°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of flurries
A slight chance of flurries will linger on Wednesday, but any additional accumulations should be small. A breezy south wind will develop, keeping temperatures mild.
Long Range
Conditions should remain mild until Christmas, but after that a major pattern change is coming. Models suggest that our first major arctic blast in several weeks will move in on Boxing Day. That might have many folks doing their post-Christmas shopping online, as opposed to venturing out into an unfamiliar chill.
The NAEFS is predicting below-normal temperatures in the 8-14 day time period.
