Today will be off to a chilly start as rain showers or flurries move through the Red River Valley alongside near-freezing temperatures and a gusty northwesterly wind. Fortunately, this brief outbreak of colder weather will be short-lived as above-normal temperatures gradually build back into the region for the weekend.
Cool & Soggy Wednesday
It will be cool and soggy today for Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a brisk west to northwesterly wind carries flurries & showers through the region. Much of today’s precipitation will fall as rain, however for several hours this morning snow will be possible. No significant accumulations are expected since temperatures (and the ground) will be above zero, but it could be enough to dust grassy areas and cars.
Temperatures will be below-normal today with the high temperature topping out at just 6°C.
RDPS 12hr precipitation totals valid for 00Z Wednesday October 28, 2015
The wind will be out of the north to northwest for much of the day at around 30km/h with some gustiness on top of that, however as an inverted trough passes through late in the afternoon & the pressure gradient straightens out, winds will increase to 40–50km/h this evening for several hours before tapering off as a ridge of high pressure pushes in overnight. Temperatures will drop to around 2°C overnight.
Warming Trend for Second Half of the Week
Thursday and Friday will be slightly more pleasant days with temperatures gradually returning to seasonal values. Both days will see a fair amount of cloud through the Red River Valley, although Thursday has the potential for a few more sunny breaks than Friday does. Daytime highs will be just above the seasonal value of 6°C on both days with a high of 7°C expected on Thursday and a high of 9°C on Friday. No precipitation is expected on either day and overnight lows will sit near the freezing mark both Thursday & Friday nights.
Well Above-Normal Temperatures Return for the Weekend
Snow suits will be absent for Halloween this year as temperatures some 6°C above normal will result in a relatively mild end to October.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook is predicting a fair chance for above-normal temperatures early next week.
Daytime highs in the low teens are expected this weekend and into the beginning of next week thanks to a broad zonal flow that will develop aloft, keeping the colder Arctic air in the north and spreading milder Pacific air across the southern Prairies.
There’s a bit of uncertainty as to precipitation; most models show a dry weekend ahead, however the GFS wants to push a disturbance through midday Saturday bringing a shot of rain to the Red River Valley. We’ll keep an eye out as that situation develops and be sure to have a complete Halloween evening forecast in our Friday forecast. Other than that, it does look like we’ll head into a more unsettled pattern next week, with potentially the first “real” snowfall of the season, so enjoy the coming mild weather while you can!
Southern Manitoba was slammed by a powerful Colorado Low this past weekend that brought a wide array of severe weather to the province. Between heavy rain, ice pellets, snow and very strong winds, the storm wreaked havoc on the regions infrastructure with widespread damage to trees, power outages, closed highways, structural damage and overland flooding.
The system was, fortunately, well forecast by Environment Canada with fairly accurate forecasts issued in the days leading up to it alongside special weather statements addressing the numerous impacts the system may have on the region.
Significant Rainfall Began Saturday Afternoon
Fortunately, the weather was able to hold for much of Saturday. Temperatures climbed into the low 20’s across Southern Manitoba with increasing cloudiness. Rain & thunderstorms developed through North Dakota & Montana and lifted northwards through the day, first spreading into SW Manitoba in the afternoon and then eastwards and northwards through the evening and overnight period.
Overland flooding at the cottages in Albert Beach, MB. Photo via @lovestormsMB.
Acres of flooded farmland between Winnipeg & Portage la Prairie. Photo via @CTVNewsBen.
Twitter user @AxeHaft snapped this picture of flooded farmland near Altona, MB.
Overland flooding near Oak Bluff, MB. Photo via @AnitaAnseeuw.
Some of the hardest hit regions were in SW Manitoba where hours of training thunderstorms & convective showers produced moderate to heavy rain. The Melita region was hit the hardest with 72mm of the grand total 90mm of rain falling by midnight on Saturday night. For areas further east, through, much of the rain fell through Saturday night & Sunday. Total rainfall amounts for Saturday and Sunday combined were:
Rainfall Totals for May 16–17, 2015 – Environment Canada & Manitoba Agriculture (*) Stations
Location
Rainfall Total (mm)
Melita
90
Bede*
83
Gretna
63
Carman
60
Deloraine*
57
Deerwood
55
Morden
51
Kleefeld
48
Reston*
48
Dugald*
45
Pilot Mound
44
Emerson
43
Pierson*
43
Letellier*
41
Winnipeg (Forks)
41
Portage East*
40
Portage Southport
40
Woodlands*
38
Oak Point
37
McCreary
36
Winnipeg Airport
36
Pinawa
36
Great Falls
34
Carberry
33
Sprague
32
Virden*
30
Brandon
29
Fisher Branch
29
Cypress River
28
Glenboro*
27
St. Pierre*
25
Wasagaming
24
Dauphin
22
Teulon*
21
Killarney*
20
Wawanesa*
20
Minnedosa*
17
Eriksdale*
16
Roblin
16
Souris*
15
Berens River
14
This rainfall is in addition to the 25–50mm of rain many areas in the region saw just a couple days prior to this storm. There were several areas that saw significant overland flooding due to the sheer quantity of water that fell over the short time frame.
Additionally, there were reports of sewage back-up and spotty basement flooding across Winnipeg.
Then Came the Wind
Sunday is where the brunt of the storm impact was felt. As the main low pressure centre lifted northwards into the Dakotas, a strong 1037mb high pressure centre was building into the central Prairies.
This surface analysis for early Sunday morning shows the strong low in the Dakotas and the strong high building into the central Prairies.
These systems produced a strong pressure gradient over southern Manitoba and produced some of the strongest, longest-duration winds for a major storm in recent memory. Winds were in excess of 50km/h for 20 hours in Winnipeg with a 6-hour stretch beginning late Sunday with winds of 60km/h or greater. Very strong gusts also accompanied the winds with Winnipeg recording the highest wind gust at 93km/h:
Peak Wind Gusts for May 17, 2015
Location
Peak Wind (km/h)
Time (CDT)
Winnipeg
93
6:44PM
Gimli Harbour
89
9:38PM
Carberry
87
4:57PM
Brandon
83
10:00AM
Kleefeld
81
4:14PM
Cypress River
81
5:01PM
Pilot Mound
81
2:45PM
Gretna
81
2:28PM
Melita
80
6:11PM
Emerson
80
4:21PM
Gimli
80
4:21PM
Porgae la Prairie
80
4:51PM
The winds may have been the most significant impact from this storm. The strong winds resulted in havoc on the highways, property damage, hundreds of downed trees, and widespread power outages. The strong winds also produced significant wave action on Lake Winnipeg and some overland flooding as rising lake levels resulted in the lake overspilling its banks and pushing inland in some locations.
Large tree snapped by strong winds in Winnipeg at Corydon & Nassau. Photo via @MattCundill.
Strong winds ripped the roof off of The Bridge Church in Winnipeg, MB. Photo via @CTVNewsBen.
A semi-truck blown by strong winds blocking the Trans-Canada Highway into Portage la Prairie. Photo via @ctvwinnipeg.
High waves due to the strong winds associated with this weekend’s Colorado Low in Gimli, MB. Photo via @OlleBear.
Photo of a downed tree in Winnipeg, MB. Photo via @mikki_co.
Large tree down in Winnipeg Beach on Spruce Ave. Photo via @SeanLedwich.
Winds tapered off to 40 gusting 60km/h on Sunday night, but remained fairly strong until tapering off Monday afternoon.
Oh, Snow Too
If the rain and the wind wasn’t enough, cold air moving in with the high pressure system resulted in precipitation switching over to ice pellets then snow beginning over Parkland Manitoba and then spreading southeastwards through the Interlake, Red River Valley & Whiteshell through the afternoon and evening. Areas through the Interlake southwestwards towards the Melita region saw the heaviest snow, with MacGregor reporting the highest amount of snow at 15cm. Amounts of 10–15cm were seen from Arnes, on the western shores of Lake Winnipeg, through Teulon, MacGregor, Treherne and down towards Boissevain:
Snowfall Totals for May 17–18, 2015 – EC Spotters & Social Media
Location
Snowfall Total (cm)
MacGregor
15
Teulon
15
Arnes
10
Boissevain
10
Treherne
10
Hollow Water FN
5
Albert Beach
5
Dauphin
5
Deloraine
5
Wasagaming
5
Winnipeg
3
In Winnipeg, we saw just a few cm of snow on Friday evening and overnight. Flurries persisted through Monday but temperatures were warm enough to prevent any more accumulation.
Substantial snow accumulation near Teulon, MB. Photo via @TrishG27.
A damaged fence alongside substantial snow accumulation in MacGregor, MB. Photo via @JBMEquiFarms.
MODIS satellite imagery showing the snow swath through the southern Interlake. Photo via @robsobs.
A broken tree sits atop a damaged structure in Dunnottar, MB amidst a fresh coat of snow. Photo via @alan_tabak.
All in all, this was certainly one of the most powerful storms Southern Manitoba has seen in a good long while. Perhaps the best thing that can be said is that at least it happened now and not a month earlier, where almost certainly it would have been a historic blizzard.
Winnipeg, and many other regions in the Red River Valley, received the most significant rainfall so far this year yesterday as an area of moderate rain moved into the province from North Dakota and stalled out for much of the day. Rainfall totals in most places were near 20–30mm with slightly higher amounts in the southwestern Red River Valley:
Rainfall totals for the May 14, 2015
Location
Rainfall Total (mm)
Letellier
41
Altona
37.6
Morris
34.2
Winkler
29.8
Steinbach
27.8
Winnipeg
24
Dugald
22
Elm Creek
12.6
Portage la Prairie
9.6
The Altona/Letellier areas seem to be the winners for total rainfall with almost 1.5” of rain in total. Unfortunately for farmers who are still working at getting seed into the ground, there won’t be much of a reprieve from wet weather before more rain is on the way as another major low pressure system is hot on the heels of the previous one and is set to bring a whole host of unsettled, pleasant and stormy weather for the May long weekend.
Pleasant Friday, then Downhill
Friday
18°C / 7°C
Partly Cloudy
Today will be a very pleasant day across the Red River Valley with mainly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the high teens under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be fairly light out of the northwest. Friday night will see temperatures drop to around 7°C under clear skies. The nice weather won’t last too long, though, as a potent low pressure system moving into the Northern Plains of the United States tonight will result in cloud and some light rain spreading across Southern Manitoba early on Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will hold off until much later in the day, however, as this system will end up being strongly driven by convection.
SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook valid Saturday May 16, 2015
The SPC[1] in the US currently has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in their outlook for Saturday scrunched right up the Canadian border. Further north in our area, it looks like an initial shot of some showers associated with elevated convection will lift through the region early in the day. Temperatures will warm towards the 20°C mark with an increasing risk of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday
20°C / 9°C
Cloudy; scattered showers with the risk of a thunderstorm
Later in the afternoon, best indications at this point are that an area of thunderstorms will initiate in North Dakota and push northeastwards through the Red River Valley. It looks like precipitation will most likely be showers or weak thunderstorms, however the outside chance exists that an isolated severe thunderstorm may be seen. A thunderstorm outlook later will be issued later today covering all of Southern Manitoba.
A few showers will be likely through the overnight hours as the temperature drops to 9°C or so.
Sunday will be the most significant precipitation day with rainfall intensifying through the morning into the afternoon. There’s some uncertainty as to where the western cut-off will be for the rain, but general consensus at this point is that the entirety of the Red River Valley will see rain on Sunday.[2] Total accumulations are hard to nail down at this point, but look to be in the 25–50mm range.
Sunday
10°C / -3°C
Rain
Things take an unwelcome turn on Sunday evening as colder air works its way into Southern Manitoba on the back-side of the system. Rain may become mixed with or switch over to snow as it begins tapering off. No significant snow accumulations are expected. Temperatures will drop off to around –3°C on Sunday night with winds gradually tapering off.
Holiday Monday A Cool Improvement
Looking ahead to the start of next week, it looks like Monday will mark the transition out of this active pattern we’ve been in. Sunny skies and exceptionally cool weather look to be on tap with highs struggling to get to even 10°C[3]. Conditions will improve over the subsequent days with drier weather and temperatures returning to the seasonal mark.
The GDPS is a bit of an outlier, keeping rain wrapped tightly to the surface low pressure system in Minnesota and keeping the bulk of Sunday’s rain southeast of Winnipeg. ↩
A potent spring storm is moving into Manitoba today and will likely exit the region known as one of the strongest of the Winter 2014/15 season. This storm has already brought drizzle, rain and freezing rain to southwestern Manitoba & the Red River Valley and will end up delivering the whole wintery mix by the time all is said and done. Environment Canada has issued a swath of heavy snowfall warnings and special weather statements across Manitoba in advance of this system.
Tuesday Night
Tuesday Night
-1°C
Rain changing to snow
Rain will redevelop this evening and persist through much of the overnight period until a cold front pushes through the Red River Valley and switches the precipitation over to snow. Many areas in the Red River Valley will see around 5-10mm of rain. Alongside the switchover to snow, strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will begin to move into the Red River Valley. The combination of falling snow and strong winds, coupled with the temperature dropping below zero overnight after a day of melting, drizzle & rain will likely produce very poor driving conditions with slippery roads & poor visibilities in blowing snow by Wednesday morning.
Wednesday
Wednesday
⇒ -2°C / -11°C
Snow ending in the afternoon; windy
Snow will continue through Wednesday morning before beginning to taper off through the afternoon with a further 5-10cm possible for the City of Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. As mentioned before, the snow will be accompanied by strong northwesterly winds to 40-50km/h which will produce a fair amount of blowing snow as well. Temperatures will drop just barely to -2 or -3°C through the day. Given the relatively mild temperatures, it’s quite likely that as soon as the snow begins to taper off, the blowing snow will too; falling snow will be needed to produce it and it’s unlikely we’ll see much ground-based blowing snow after the fact. Winds will begin to taper off late in the afternoon or in the early evening as the storm moves off into Ontario. Left behind the storm will be partly cloudy skies as temperatures drop to around -11°C.
Storm Update
As expected, many regions across Manitoba saw a significant dump of snow overnight and into this morning. Snowfall totals to 10:30AM CDT across Manitoba are:
Location
Snowfall Amount
Winnipeg
5cm
Portage la Prairie
5-10cm
Brandon
6cm
Steinbach
5cm
Dauphin
15-25cm
Rossburn
20cm
McCreary
18cm
Neepawa
15cm
Fisher Branch
15cm
Roblin
14cm
Elkhorn
10cm
Argyle
10cm
Swan River
8cm
Miami
6cm
Morris
2cm
In addition to the heavy snow, many areas through the Red River Valley saw several hours of rain last night. Here in Winnipeg, around 8mm fell overnight, and preliminary reports indicate that similar amounts were seen through much of the Red River Valley. In addition to the snow and rain, very strong winds to 50-60km/h moved into Red River Valley this morning producing blowing snow and helping make sure roads are slick.
Two semi-trucks were involved in a MVC 5km east of Elie. (Credit: @HeatherWellsCBC)
A school bus rolled on Highway 75 near St. Adolphe this morning. (Credit: @HeatherWellsCBC)
The winter weather has wreaked havoc on area infrastructure with numerous accidents on highways as well as complications to power infrastructure with numerous pole fires & power line damage events reported. Many motor-vehicle collisions were reported on Manitoba Highways, with several resulting in sections of Highways 1 and 75 being closed. Two of the more significant ones, pictured above, involved a jackknifed semi-truck collision near Elie and a school bus rollover near Ste. Agathe on Highway 75.
Conditions have begun to improve in the Red River Valley; winds remain strong however with the snow finally moving off into Ontario, much of the blowing snow has stopped. Road conditions will continue to be poor through the remainder of the day, so if you are driving, especially on area highways, be sure to give yourself extra time and be cautious.
Thursday
Thursday
-6°C / -11°C
Partly cloudy
Thursday will be a mainly sunny day – perhaps just a few lingering clouds – with a cool high of just -6°C. Winds will be light, so with the increasingly strong March sun it may not actually feel all that bad outside. Even with the sub-zero temperatures, expect plenty of melting to happen. We head into Thursday night with clear skies and cool off to around -10 or -11°C again overnight, although that could be a couple degrees warmer depending on when cloud cover arrives from…
Friday
Friday
-3°C / -8°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of light snow
Friday will bring mainly cloudy skies as clouds push in either early Friday morning or late overnight on Thursday thanks to a system rippling through Southern Manitoba from the northwest. It will most likely produce a band of snow through portions of the Parkland, Southwest and into the Western Red River Valley. Under this band, accumulations of 1-2cm look possible at this time. There’s a little uncertainty as to the exact track, given that it’s 3.5 days out at this point, so it may end up a little further west or east. With the current “most likely” track, Winnipeg sees a fairly decent chance at some flurries but little in the way of accumulations. Temperatures will climb to around -3°C with fairly light winds. Friday night looks pleasant with light winds again and a low near -8°C.
Long Range
It’s looking as if another storm is possible on Saturday night as a shortwave tracks across Manitoba.
The GDPS is forecasting a fair amount of precipitation associated with a significant storm moving through Manitoba this weekend.
Fortunately, it seems like it will be bringing enough warm air with it that precipitation would fall as rain. Either way, though, it looks like we’ll see plenty of cloud and wind this weekend. After a long spell of little in the way of weather, it looks like a typical, more active springtime pattern is setting up!
