Dry Streak Finally Over

In a new post over at Rob’s Blog, Rob describes exactly how dry it has been this summer in Winnipeg. I recommend you head over and read it, but the highlights are:

  • This summer the CYWG airport site recorded 93.0mm of rain from June to August.
    • This value is over 140mm below average
  • This year was the driest summer since 2006, when only 91.5mm of rain was recorded.
  • Southwest Manitoba and the Southern RRV experienced near-normal amounts of rain while the Northern RRV and Eastern MB experienced the dry conditions this summer.
  • This summer was the 5th driest summer on record.

Be sure to head over to Rob’s Blog to see the whole post and some more details on this summer compared to climatology. All in all, if you enjoy the sun, this summer in Winnipeg has been the summer for you!

The hot and dry weather came to an abrupt end early Thursday morning when Winnipeg received ~20mm of rain as a large complex of thunderstorms rolled through Southern Manitoba, giving large amounts of rain and winds as high as 110km/h over portions of extreme Southern MB. After a day of sun with much cooler temperatures, Winnipeg is set to likely receive another round of showers tonight. Read on to find out what’s in store!

18:15Z Water Vapor Image
Water Vapor (7µm) Image of Canada from 2:15PM CDT. L – Low; Blue Line – Cold Front; Red Line – Warm Front; Green Arrows – Expected Track of Low

A moderately strong upper low is tracking southeastwards across the Prairies today and will slump to the International Border near Melita by late this evening and then slide east along the border, crossing over the RRV overnight. A frontal wave associated with this system will mirror its parent’s motion and slide along the same track ahead of the system, arriving at the western edge of the RRV by early-to-mid evening.

6 Hour QPF from GEM-REG 12Z Model Run valid at 06Z 03 Sept. 2011
6 Hour QPF from GEM-REG 12Z Model Run valid at 06Z 03 Sept. 2011 (1AM CDT)

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along the warm front early this evening, pushing into the RRV around midnight. The rain will push across the RRV and through Winnipeg overnight. Most of the RRV will see only 2-4mm of rain, and there is no risk of severe thunderstorms. Perhaps a bigger story with this system is rainfall totals in areas north of the the low track.

24 Hour QPF from GEM-REG 12Z Model Run valid at 12Z 03 Sept. 2011
24 Hour Total QPF from GEM-REG 12Z Model Run valid at 12Z 03 Sept. 2011

The above picture shows the total amount of rain that is expected to fall from Friday 7 A.M. CDT to Saturday 7 A.M. CDT. Over 40mm of rain are expected to fall across portions of Eastern Saskatchewan, across the Parkland areas of Manitoba including Dapuhin and Minneodsa, through the Interlake and into Northwestern Ontario.


For Saturday, Winnipeg and the rest of the RRV will see the chance of showers as the cold front pushes through in the morning. By early afternoon things will begin to stabilize with the passage of the front, and most of the RRV will see winds of 30-40km/h behind the cold front with gusts up to 60km/h.


Chart of 500mb Heights and Temperatures valid for the evening of Wed. Sept. 7

Things look calm in the long-term, as after this system the upper ridge begins to redevelop aloft. It will continue to intensify through the next week, bringing sunny skies and the return of warmer weather. We should see relatively light winds most of next week with daytime highs in the mid-20’s. Summer isn’t over yet!

Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as @WeatherInThePeg on Twitter.