Monday will be a pleasant day in southern Manitoba, with slightly above seasonal temperatures and light winds. However, change is on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong low pressure system approaches the region.

Monday

Today will be a nice day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the upper single digits under mainly sunny skies and light winds. There may be some low cloud in the morning, but it should dissipate by the afternoon. Enjoy today, because the rest of the week won’t be quite so pleasant!

Tuesday

A low pressure system will move into southern Manitoba on Tuesday, bringing with it some light rainfall. Accumulations aren’t expected to be large, probably only 2-4 mm in the Red River Valley. Winds will be from the south-east at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h.

Wednesday

Tuesday’s system will stick around on Wednesday, bringing more rainfall to southern Manitoba. Additional accumulations of 5-10 mm look probable at this point, although it’s too early to make any firm predictions. The wind will make it feel quite unpleasant, with speeds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to suggest a generally above-normal trend as we move into November. There will likely be a fair amount of variability in the weather as we continue moving deeper into fall, but that is not abnormal for this time of year. The interesting thing to watch moving forward will be the impact of El Nino on our weather. Typically, the effects of El Nino become stronger as we move into winter, so we will see if that is what happens this year.

A weak Colorado Low will bring a swath of rain across Southern Manitoba today as it passes through the Northern Plains of the United States. The chance for rain will return on Saturday before a bit more stability moves into the region, resulting in a relatively pleasant late October weekend.

The main weather story today will be the Colorado Low passing to our south. Rain will begin fairly early this morning as it spreads up from the south through the Red River Valley and into the Interlake. The rain will persist through much of the day—although there may be a few lighter periods—and taper off in the evening.

Much of Southern Manitoba will see between 5–15mm of rain, with generally lower accumulations west of the Red River Valley and increasing accumulations heading towards the southeast corner of the province. Here in Winnipeg, we’ll likely see close to 10mm of rain. Aside from the rain, the winds will be fairly light through the Red River Valley with daytime highs climbing to around 9°C. Heading into the evening hours, the wind will likely pick up a bit out of the northwest to 20–30km/h.

As the rain tapers off overnight, we’ll likely see the clouds scatter out and winds diminish. Temperatures will dip down to around 1°C.

Saturday will bring mixed skies and relatively light winds. Much of the day will be dry, but a secondary disturbance pushing in from the northwest will bring a batch of scattered showers through late in the afternoon or early evening and persisting into the overnight period. Temperatures will climb to around 13°C on Saturday and then drop down to around 2°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will be a pleasant day, despite being fairly cloudy. Winds should be relatively light and the daytime highs will be near 7°C. Clouds should clear out overnight, making for a cool low near –2 or –3°C.

Cooler Weather to Start Next Week

Much cooler weather will be in place to start next week with daytime highs likely in the 3–6°C range. Monday looks sunny but perhaps windy in the afternoon ahead of a forecast low pressure system that will bring a chance of rain to southern Manitoba on Tuesday. This system could potentially produce another moderate rainfall event, but it’s too early to really speculate too much. After that, the remainder of the week looks fairly quiet with more seasonal temperatures returning for the second half of the week.