Fire crews were kept busy with a grass fire near the west perimeter Monday evening.

Dry & Mild Weather Continues

Brad 1 Comment

Dry weather is increasingly becoming the predominant weather story for our region as an extended period of little-to-no precipitation develops. Through March, the Winnipeg airport reported only 13.8mm of precipitation, barely over half of the normal of 24.5mm[1]. So far, half-way through April, we’ve seen just 2.0mm of precipitation, well off the pace of the normal of 30.0mm. This is all in addition to coming off the 9th driest meteorological winter on record. The dry weather has led to a fatality due to a brush fire in the RM of Rhineland, a fire that temporarily closed rail lines in Winnipeg near the Perimeter Highway and Wilkes Ave.[2] and the cancellation of Manitoba burning permits.

The problems are even worse south of the border, though, with some areas in North Dakota seeing record dryness. On Monday, the NWS Grand Forks office tweeted a new record for Grand Forks:

They followed it up by also mentioning that Fargo has seen it’s 3rd driest October-April stretch. The dry weather has created an excessive fire hazard in the region and has resulted in numerous “Red Flag” warnings.[3]

Unfortunately, little relief is in sight. The warm, windy weather will continue over the coming days with no significant precipitation.

Today will be another very warm day; our forecast high of 22°C is over 10°C above normal for this time of year. The warmth will come along side very strong southerly winds, though, with sustained winds strengthening to 50–60km/h and gusts possibly as high as 90km/h. Environment Canada issued a wind warning at 11:51PM last night anticipating the strong winds. Winds will remain strong into the evening before diminishing overnight. There will be some cloud moving in overnight associated with a cold front moving through as the temperature drops to around 6°C. There’s a very slight chance of a few sprinkles overnight into early Thursday morning, but at this point it looks like any amounts, if they were to occur, would be insignificant.

Thursday will be a relatively quiet day. Temperatures will remain mild with highs near 16°C, but the more notable aspect of the day will be the calm winds thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the region. Expect cloud to move in on Thursday evening as we drop to a low near 6°C again.

GPDS 12hr. QPF valid 00Z April 18th, 2015
The GDPS shows Winnipeg on the edge of an area of accumulating showers on Friday.

Friday’s main weather story will be a low pressure system slumping through Southern Manitoba. It will bring an area of showers with it, however at this point general model consensus is that Winnipeg will likely see a few sprinkles, but the accumulating rainfall of a few mm will remain further north in the Interlake. As the system passes, a cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley and usher in strong northwest winds to around 40 gusting 60km/h. The temperature will climb to near 14°C under more cloud than sun. Skies will clear and winds diminish heading into the evening as the temperature heads to a low of about 3 or 4°C.

Long Range

In general, the weather continues to look warm and fairly dry. No significant precipitation is expected in the next 10 days across the Southern Prairies and Northern Plains. Any chances for rain in the 4–10 day period look pretty uncertain at best as different models are tracking fairly divergent solutions. The warm weather looks to stick around until next week before some cooler weather may begin moving in.

  1. Based on the 1981 – 2010 climate normals.  ↩
  2. Pictured above; credit to Christopher Stanton / Global News.  ↩
  3. Red flag warnings are issued when weather conditions combine with dry hydrological conditions to present an extreme fire hazard.  ↩

Warm Weather Continues

Scott Leave a comment

Warm weather will continue this week as temperatures remain well above seasonal values.

Mild weather will continue in southern Manitoba on Monday
Mild weather will continue in southern Manitoba on Monday

The Week Ahead

Monday

Today will be mild, but breezy. High temperatures will sit in the low teens with a gusty west wind. Skies should remain mainly sunny, making for a generally nice day.

Tuesday

A developing low pressure system to our west will give us south-easterly winds for Tuesday. This southerly flow will also draw up some warmer air, pushing high temperatures into the upper teens. Skies are expected to be a mix of sun and cloud as an upper disturbance passes through the region.

Wedensday

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as high temperatures climb into the 20s once again. These warm temperatures will be the result of a stiff southerly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Skies are expected to be mainly sunny, but with a gusty south wind.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look warm. However, a cold front will pass through southern Manitoba late on Wednesday, ushering in slightly cooler conditions for Thursday. Medium-range models suggest that above-normal weather will stick around until at least the beginning of the weekend, which will mean high temperatures remaining well into the teens. Further out in the long range it appears another cold front may pass through later on the weekend, which may cool us down temporarily, but it’s too soon to say for sure.

Elsewhere in Weather News: April 11th, 2015

Matthieu Leave a comment

Severe Weather Outbreak Strikes Plains and Midwest

As April rolls around the severe weather season in the United States is on an uptick, and with that comes a higher threat for tornadoes. The latest severe weather outbreak occurred Wednesday and Thursday of this past week and hit hardest a few small communities of northern Illinois.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Medicine Lodge, Kansas[/pin] [pin]Fairdale, Illinois[/pin] [/map]

The setup on Wednesday was a fairly typical setup that you would see for a Southern Plains outbreak – surface low in central Kansas with sharp warm front extending eastwards and dryline extending southwards. This, combined with an upper-level trough moving in aloft, destabilized the environment sufficiently for supercells. Only a few tornadoes were observed on Wednesday, with most spotted just west of Wichita (including a large cone tornado near Medicine Lodge) and one unconfirmed in western Oklahoma. No damage was reported as tornadoes mainly touched down in open areas.

Picture of the Fairdale tornado near Ashton Ill. (Source: Tom Purdy)
Aerial picture of the tornado path and damage in Fairdale. (Source: @jessycamalina)
Ground scars from the EF-4 tornado near Fairdale, Ill. (Source: @jessycamalina)
Sounding from central Ill at 7pm (about the time of the tornado) shows a veering wind profile that’s nearly uncapped with sufficient CAPE for supercells.

Thursday was a different story however, as the system progressed eastwards. The main risk for the day zeroed in to an area near the triple point where both CAPE and shear values were high and surface winds were slightly more backed compared to further south along the cold front. Once again, supercells were triggered in the early evening hours – this time in northern Illinois. One supercell near the triple point stood out from the others however; there no other cells to its southeast to inhibit growth and it latched along the warm front. What came of this supercell was a long tracked tornado that was on the ground for an estimated 25-35km and measured just less than a kilometre in width. It tore through mostly rural area and outskirts of two other towns before striking the town of Fairdale, Ill, which sustained heavy damage from the twister. On Friday, National Weather Service teams were out to examine the damage and gave it a preliminary rating of EF-4 (winds of about 315km/h). Two people were killed and a dozen more injured by the tornado. Cleanup is currently underway in the town as calmer weather sets in for the weekend.

Note: there is some strong language near the end of the video clip

Weekend Warmth Returns

Brad 1 Comment

Some absolutely beautiful weather is on tap heading into this weekend as a stretch of above-normal temperatures sets up over Southern Manitoba. An upper-level ridge building into Manitoba will bring with it a surge of warmer air that will allow our temperatures to soar into the mid-to-upper teens with plenty of sunshine. A brief hiccup in the nice weather will move through on Sunday, but then it looks like a quick rebound for the upper ridge, maintaining warmer than seasonal temperatures across Southern Manitoba.1

Today will be a transition day from the cooler air behind yesterday’s cold front into the incoming warm air spreading eastwards with the upper-level ridge. Mainly sunny skies will be in place over the Red River Valley with a high near 12°C. Winds will start off light out of the northwest and back to the south by evening; winds will remain fairly light through the day, though, up to only around 10–15km/h. Tonight will bring clear skies and a low near +1°C and light winds.

Saturday will be a beautiful day. Full sun combined with the warming temperatures aloft will allow our daytime high to climb to – a nearly 10°C above normal – 18°C. The winds will be, as they are often when we see big warm-ups, pretty stiff out of the south with sustained winds to 30–40km/h with gusts to around 50km/h. Winds will slowly taper off overnight, but with all the warm air in place over the region, we’ll see a balmy overnight low near 8°C with a bit of cloud cover moving in overnight.

GDPS 6hr QPF valid 18Z Sunday April 12, 2015
The GDPS is forecasting a line of showers moving through Southern Manitoba on Sunday morning, shown by this 6-hour precipitation accumulation forecast.

Sunday will be more of an unsettled day as a cold front moves through the region. The day will start off with increasing cloud and likely some showers moving through with the cold front. Behind the front, we’ll see clearing skies making for a sunny afternoon and a high near 14°C. Unfortunately, the winds will pick up out of the northwest behind the front and be pretty breezy; by late afternoon the winds will likely be up to 40 gusting 60km/h out of the northwest. There may be a slight chance of some late-day showers for Winnipeg, but it really ends up depending on the exact track of the upper-level low as it moves through. It looks most likely that any wrap-around showers will remain north of the city.

Sunday night will bring mainly clear skies and a low near +2°C as cooler air works in aloft.

Next Week At A Glance

Next week looks to continue the warm streak with daytime highs in the mid-teens. Conditions look fairly dry with most the precipitation associated with any lows moving through remains further north into central Manitoba.

After a week of cooler temperatures, it looks like we finally get to switch into a more prolonged period of spring-like warmth.

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg are around 10°C.↩