Warm Week Ahead with an Unsettled End

Brad Leave a comment

Unseasonably warm weather will settle in over Southern Manitoba over the next few days with daytime highs soaring 7–8°C above the normal 12°C for this time of year. Week’s end will bring unsettled weather into the province as a low pressure system lifts northwards out of the Central Plains of the United States.

Wednesday

19°C / 7°C
Mainly sunny with a few cloudy periods in the afternoon.
Thursday

19°C / 12°C
Increasing cloud through the day. Chance of showers in the evening.
Friday

18°C / 8°C
Cloudy. A few showers likely.

Today & Tomorrow

We’ll see a very pleasant day today with a high around 20°C and bright sunny skies light winds out of the southwest. We may see a little afternoon cloud, but nothing too significant. Tonight will be a fairly seasonable night with mostly clear skies and a low near 7°C.

Tomorrow will start off mostly sunny, but we’ll see some scattered cloud through the day and by late in the day we’ll start to see more organized cloud cover starting to push into the Red River Valley from North Dakota. There will be a slight chance of a shower through the evening hours as a warm front lifts north through the Red River Valley & Interlake regions but no significant accumulations are expected in our region.

An Unsettled Friday

Friday will most likely end up a somewhat unsettled day as a low pressure system tracks through the Red River Valley. This disturbance will bring a fair amount of rain to Western Manitoba; at this point it looks like close to 40–50mm will fall near the Saskatchewan border. Here in the Red River Valley rainfall will be lighter and more disorganized in nature. We’ll see a decent chance of some light scattered showers through the Red River Valley through the day under cloudy skies. The temperature should climb to around 18°C as we sit just on the warm side of the main frontal boundary of this system.

12hr. QPF valid Fri. 12Z - Sat 00Z w/Frontal Analysis

Forecast rainfall through the daytime on Friday from the GDPS. Rainfall accumulation 12Z – 00Z; low position & fronts valid for Saturday 00Z.

We’ll likely see the bulk of the rain we receive on Friday night and Saturday as we move onto the back-side of the system and a large area of wrap-around precipitation hangs back over the Red River Valley. At the moment, models are forecasting total accumulations around Winnipeg to be anywhere from 5–15mm by the end of Saturday. Until then, we have a couple nice days ahead so get out there and enjoy them!

Warm Start to the Week

Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out seasonably warm, a nice turn-around after a cool end to last week.

The Weather will be Nice in Southern Manitoba on Monday

The Week Ahead

Monday

Mainly Sunny
16°C / 6°C
Tuesday

Mix of Sun and Cloud
20°C / 6°C
Wednesday

Mainly Cloudy
16°C / 7°C

Today will be a nice day in Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be in the mid teens under sunny skies. The wind will be light as well, making for all around pleasant conditions.

Tuesday will once again see mild conditions in Southern Manitoba. There may be a bit more cloud compared to Monday, but temperatures are still expected to be warm, with highs in the upper teens or low twenties. Tuesday will be a bit windier than Monday, but even so the wind won’t be a big issue.

Conditions will change little for Wednesday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid teens in Southern Manitoba with light winds. Wednesday will be a cloudier day however, as a weather system to our south spreads some cloud cover over Southern Manitoba.

Long Range

The weather for the late week period is looking a bit interesting. A large low pressure system is currently forecast to move through Southern Manitoba towards the weekend. At this point it appears precipitation from this system will be mostly rain, although some flurries may be possible as it exits the region. More details on this system will be available later in the week.

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 5th, 2013

Matthieu Leave a comment

Quadruple threat in the US this Week

All kinds of extreme weather have been plaguing the United States this week; from tropical storms, tornadoes to blizzards to severe Santa Ana winds, they’ve just about seen it all. It was all happening yesterday due to a dynamic low pressure system centered in the Northern US Plains. High pressure building behind the low pressure system was responsible for the Santa Ana winds. The tropical storm, a completely separate system, has been targeting the gulf shores for a few days now.

The powerful fall low pressure system was drawing in brisk air from the north behind it which helped produce ideal conditions for blizzard conditions in the Black Hills. It was not unusual to see snowfall rates in excess of 5cm/h throughout the day on Friday in the region. The hardest hit area in regards to snow looked to be Lead, SD, which by Friday night had received 110cm (in less than 48 hours!), and another 20-30cm could fall before deformation zone moves off.

Lead, SD snow

Streetcam picture of the snow accumulated in Lead, SD. Keep in mind there was no snow on the ground less than 48 hours ago! (Source: Twitter: @TylerJRoney)

Deadwood, SD snow drifts

Incredible image of a large snow drift almost completely covering the front door in Deadwood, SD. (Source: Twitter: @ReadingReineke)

In the warm sector of the same system severe thunderstorms were spawned on Friday. A few supercells formed in the late afternoon near the triple point in northern Nebraska/extreme southern South Dakota. With extremely favourable conditions for tornadoes, storms quickly started rotating. The number of tornadoes is still unclear at this time but a violent, long tracked, wedge tornado which was reported to be over a mile wide, touched down. Per initial reports it appears as though Wayne, NE was the hardest hit on Friday by this tornado. Houses and factories were completely demolished and two dozen people were reported injured. A squall line also evolved further south into Kansas and Oklahoma where large hail and severe wind were the main threats.

Wayne, NE damage

Damage of a factory destroyed in Wayne, NE from the tornado that hit the town. (Source: Twitter: @action3news)

The Santa Ana winds have been a treat to California this week, too. These winds get funneled through the Mountains of Southern California, subsequently warm and dry as they descend in elevation. Gusts in excess of 110km/h have been tearing through Southern California bringing with them an extreme fire risk. This prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue multiple red flag warnings for the area – these warnings are issued when conditions are ideal for wildfires and quick intensification. The NWS also added that these were the worst winds in five years.

As for the tropical storm (Karen) spinning in the Gulf of Mexico, it does not appear that it will become a significant hurricane. Strong wind shear has been affecting its development for the past few days. It will likely make landfall as a tropical storm with winds of tropical storm force, but possibly even weaker depending on how much the shear tears the storm apart. The location of the landfall looks to be on the south-east gulf shores of Louisiana. It doesn’t appear as though its effects will be too significant to the US – heavy rain will be the main threat with Karen. Otherwise, the tropics continue to remain unusually calm and no other developments elsewhere in the Atlantic basin are expected in the near future.

Uneventful and Cooler End to the Work Week

Brad Leave a comment

A strong low pressure system located to our south-east, in the Northern US Plains, is expected to bring the Dakotas their first snowfall accumulation for the 2013-2014 winter season but will only clip portions of extreme south-east Manitoba.

US Plains low

Low pressure system affecting Northern Plains depicted here for 4PM CDT today. It will keep us cool and cloudy for most of the afternoon/evening.

Friday

Friday

8°C / 1°C
Becoming overcast early on in the day.

Today, temperatures will be slightly on the cool side. The strong system aforementioned will be drawing in cooler air from the north into southern Manitoba. Models are in agreement that rain and snow will stay out of Winnipeg, though there is a slight chance that regions in extreme south-east Manitoba get some showers Friday evening. Winnipeg can expect to see a high near the 8°C mark with increasing cloudiness throughout the day. In the afternoon and evening winds will be stronger 20km/h gusting to 40km/h coming out of the north. It will be a notably chilly day; our high will be some 7-8°C below normal for this time of year. West of the Red River Valley will be even chillier with highs only expected in the mid-single digits. For Friday night, there is a small chance of frost in Winnipeg but areas more at risk lie to the west of the city.

Saturday

Saturday

10°C / -1°C
Mainly sunny.

Saturday looks to be a nicer day, compared to today; mostly sunny skies combined with slightly higher temperatures around 10°C. The only potential downfall looks to be the wind which will still be fairly strong in the afternoon: 20-30km/h from the north before it dies down in the evening. Saturday night will be a chilly one with high pressure in our region, light winds and clear skies for the most part; Winnipeg has a good chance at seeing some frost.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday

13°C / 4°C
Mainly sunny, a few stray clouds.

The weekend looks to end on a good note with mainly sunny conditions under more of a westerly flow. Highs in the low to mid-teens can be expected for southern Manitoba. Winnipeg looks to see a return to seasonal temperatures with a high of around 13°C weaker winds than the past few days.

For the beginning of the next work week temperatures appear to stay near normal as high pressure moves in. As the high pressure system moves east, a return flow will likely bring in some warmer, above normal, temperatures to the Red River Valley by Tuesday.