Winnipeg will be ringing in 2016 with temperatures 5-10°C above normal as a surge of mild Pacific air sweeps across the Prairies.

A gorgeous holiday Friday and weekend is on tap for Winnipeg thanks to a surge of warmer air that swept into the province overnight. Today will bring mainly sunny skies and breezy westerlies at 20-30 km/h. Temperatures will climb to around -4°C for the afternoon with a chance of some cloudiness as a bank of stratus cloud passes mainly to the east of the Red River Valley. Winds will persist out of the west-northwest at about 20 km/h as temperatures dip to to around -10°C.

Tomorrow will bring some afternoon cloud as a weak cool front approaches, but not before temperatures climb to the -3 or -2°C mark! At this point, it doesn’t look like there will be too much cloud on Saturday afternoon as once again, the main area of cloud is forecast to pass east of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to around -12°C on Saturday night before moderating slightly as cloud cover begins building into the Red River Valley.

Sunday looks like the weather takes a bit of a turn for the worse, but the mild weather persists. The cloud that will be tied up to our east over the next couple of days is forecast to finally spill westward and push into the Red River Valley. With that happening, it looks like Sunday will be mainly cloudy, but still mild for early January, with a high near -7°C. The cloud will keep things warm on Sunday night with a low near -10°C.

Long Range

Conditions will remain mild through the week with daytime highs in the -5 to -10°C range. No significant precipitation is expected until possibly the end of the week, so all in all it’s looking great!

In the longer range, models are converging on seasonal temperatures for the region. This would mean occasional snow and highs in the -10 to -15°C range and lows between -20 to -25°C.

The warm weather bathing over southern Manitoba shows no end in sight as daytime highs above freezing will remain in place for the next week, absolutely rocketing past the seasonal high temperatures near -8°C.

The coming days will be dominated by a broad zonal flow over the southern Prairies that will maintain the unseasonal warmth over the region and continue to keep the Arctic air bottled up north. Mainly sunny skies over the coming days will help produce daytime highs near 3 or 4°C, some 10°C above normal for this time of year.  While we likely won’t be hitting record high temperatures—which range from +5-12°C for the coming days—this period of warmth is nonetheless remarkable for early December.

For the coming days, temperatures will remain at least 8°C above normal for this time of year.  The prolonged period of warmth will result in a gradual erosion of the snowpack over the majority of the Red River Valley.

With little-to-no snow in the forecast, there’s a decent chance that by the start of next week, there’s a lot more bare ground showing around the Winnipeg area.

Other than the warm temperatures, there’s little to talk about in the forecast.  Today will be a fairly windy day with southerlies increasing through the day to around 40-50 km/h this afternoon. Winds will subside tonight and remain relatively light through the weekend. Overnight lows will sit in the -2 to -4°C range.

Long-Range Outlook

Nothing but warmth.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 12-19, 2015

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid December 11-17, 2015

Both the NAEFS and the CPC show very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures continuing through the coming week or two. Little-to-no precipitation is expected.

Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Beautiful Start to December Continues

A foggy start today will be the minor blip in what looks to be a beautiful second half of the week, and start to meteorological winter, as the mild weather shows no end in sight.

The forecast for the remainder of the work week is pretty straightforward: beautiful with warm and sunny weather.

This morning will be the one blip over the next few days as fog over the region gradually burns off. After that, we’ll see mainly sunny conditions over the coming days with temperatures slowly warming as a train of low pressure systems tracking across the Northern Prairies drag warmer air eastwards across the Prairies.

Winds will be calm today, however pick up through the remainder of the week. Thursday will see westerly winds around 20–30 km/h while Friday will see gusty southerlies at 30–40 km/h.

By Friday, daytime highs will be 10°C or more above seasonal values with the potential for substantial snow-melt through much of the Red River Valley.

Weekend Outlook & Beyond

The mild weather will continue into the weekend with daytime highs slightly above 0°C expected throughout much of the Red River Valley. Saturday will likely be the nicest day of the week with daytime highs of 2–4°C and some breezy westerlies. Sunday will be a bit cooler with lighter winds.

Looking further ahead, the NAEFS continues to remain very confident in above normal temperatures for the region. With no indication that the Polar Jet has any plans to shift further south, out of the Northern Prairies, it seems fairly safe to go with the NAEFS forecast. Early indications are that we can expect daytime highs next week in the range of –2°C to +2°C or so with little in the way of precipitation.