Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Wednesday Rain Lead Transition to Warmer Weather

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A low pressure system moving across Southern Manitoba today will produce some rain this afternoon that may have a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the heavier bands. This system is on the leading edge of a large-scale pattern shift that will transition the region into a warmer, but windier, regime for the end of the week and extending through Thanksgiving weekend.

Today will be a bit of an unpleasant day; moderately strong southeasterly winds will develop through the morning to around 40 km/h (with some gusts on top of that) by this afternoon while temperatures struggle from a chilly sub-zero low to just the low-to-mid teens. The strengthening winds will be courtesy an approaching low pressure system that will push across the Red River Valley later today; this system will be responsible for some widespread shower activity late this morning into the afternoon hours that will push from west to east across southern Manitoba.

RDPS 12hr. Precipitation Totals valid Thursday Night
The RDPS is showing 5-10mm of rain through the RRV with this system, however pockets of 10-15mm appear possible.

Winds will diminish as the low passes by in the evening. Expect mainly cloudy skies overnight with a low near 6 or 7°C.

Seasonal Temperatures Lead to Weekend “Heat Wave”

Thursday and Friday will both be fairly similar days thanks to a ridge of high pressure dominating the region. Winds will be relatively light, skies fairly sunny[1], and temperatures fairly seasonal with daytime highs near 13°C and overnight lows near in the –1 to 4°C range.

The winds will begin to pick up out of the southwest on Friday evening as the ridge of high pressure moves off to the east and a more zonal flow pattern begins to develop for the weekend.

This zonal flow pattern will result in much warmer air pushing eastwards across the Prairies, sending temperatures soaring 5–8°C above normal for this time of year. At this point, it looks like daytime highs will be around 20–22°C this weekend with winds in the 20–30km/h range.

No precipitation is expected on Saturday or Sunday, however a cold front pushing through Sunday afternoon may bring in some breezy winds. For Thanksgiving Monday, pleasant conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper teens are expected. Winds will likely be breezy out of the west to northwest, though, at around 30km/h.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Western North America in the 8-14 day range.

Further down the road in the 8–14 day range, the NAEFS continues to forecast above normal temperatures for western North America. There isn’t a whole lot to say about it, so just enjoy the (relatively) pleasant weather outside. If a frosty morning here or there has you down, just remember that it’s October and we’re looking at 20°C+ highs for Thanksgiving weekend!

  1. Except for Thursday morning, where any remnant cloud from today’s system will be clearing out.  ↩

Mild Weekend Ahead

Brad 2 Comments

The first weekend in October is looking like a great one; plenty of sunshine will be seen over the coming few days alongside temperatures 2–3°C above normal for this time of year.

Today and tomorrow’s weather pattern will be dominated by a large ridge of high pressure anchored from northwestern Ontario into northern Quebec, whose presence will be one of the guiding impacts on the track of Hurricane Joquain. Here in Manitoba, dry outflow from the ridge will ensure skies stay clear and a polar jet stream mainly locked in the Arctic will keep the cooler weather well to our north and allow for slightly above-seasonal daytime highs[1] through the weekend.

Here in Winnipeg, we can expect mainly sunny conditions today and tomorrow with daytime highs around 16–17°C. Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 20–30km/h both days, although today will likely be a bit windier than Saturday. Overnight lows both tonight & Saturday night will sit around +3°C.

Sunday will see the pattern begin to break down a bit. The quasi-stationary ridge to our east will begin to shift off towards the east, easing the pressure gradient over the Red River Valley and finally giving us a break from the windy conditions that will have been in place for several days by that point. As things shift to east, however, cloud will begin to spill eastwards into the valley from a low pressure system that has been stalled over the western high plains for several days. This means that Winnipeg will likely see a fairly cloudy day, but daytime highs should be relatively unaffected and remain a couple degrees above normal near 15–16°C.

As we head into Sunday night, the chance for some light shower activity will increase. Very little is expected by way of significant precipitation, although at this point it appears that the slightly unsettled conditions will likely persist through Monday & Tuesday next week.

Above-Normal Temperatures To Persist

Looking ahead into the long range, it appears that the above-normal temperatures are likely to stick around.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid for October 10 – 17, 2015

As the NAEFS 8–14 day outlook here shows, there’s a high probability of above normal temperatures throughout most of Manitoba for the period of October 10–17th, as well as for almost the entirety of the remainder of North America. The NAEFS ensemble has been persistent with this trend for quite a while now, and is what we expect to see in strong El Niño years as it often shunts the polar jet stream to the north and east, allowing warmer air to spill eastwards through the southern Prairies in a more zonal upper-level flow.

El Niño Winter Pattern
A typical generalized winter weather pattern during strong El Niño events. Credit: NOAA Climate

In El Niño years, persistent low pressure off the west coast of North America tend to produce ridging over the Rockies, drawing warmer air further to the northeast. This ridging shunts the polar jet stream further to the northeast and typically keeps the Arctic blast freezer bottled up a little more.

How strong is this El Nino now? The only real way to answer this is to throw a bunch of numbers at you. Essentially, it’s “pretty strong.”

This year’s El Niño is on track to be one of the strongest on record, which would have a high correlation of generally persistent above-normal temperatures. This doesn’t mean that cold weather isn’t possible this winter; rather it just means that any cold outbreaks will likely be shorter-lived than typical. One of the potential down-sides to this year’s event is that strong El Niño events tend to correlate with cloudier winters in the Red River Valley.

Again, all this is very generalized climate speak; the day-to-day weather can certainly vary significantly and the end result won’t just be a result of the El Niño, but also its interactions with the AO, NAO, and a few other large-scale patterns.

At the most simple level, though, it’s looking like above-normal temperatures will continue for a while yet. Perhaps the most disappointing thing at this point will be watching that “seasonal high” curve get lower and lower.

Enjoy the pleasant fall weekend!

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg are around 14°C.  ↩

Warm & Windy Weather Ahead

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A beautiful end of week is on tap as temperature soar well above seasonal values with plenty of sunshine on tap. Things will take a slight turn for the end of the weekend as a cold front slumps through the Red River Valley and ushers in a windy return to temperatures that are…just slightly above seasonal values.

Today and tomorrow will be gorgeous days with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 20’s soaring more than 10°C above seasonal for this time of year. The wind will be fairly noticeable, however, increasing each day out of the south to around 30–40km/h, with some gustiness particularly on Saturday. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid-teens.

Forecast 850mb temperatures valid Sunday morning from the NAM.
Shown here in the NAM forecast for 850mb temperatures, a cold front will be advancing through Manitboba on Sunday morning.

A cold front will slump through the Red River Valley on Saturday night, shifting the winds to the northwest late overnight and bringing a slight chance of showers to the region. Overall, the frontal passage looks to be fairly dry with little precipitation expected.

This will lead to a breezy Sunday with a high that, while still above seasonal, will be quite a bit cooler than the prior couple days, likely settling near the 20°C mark. While the morning cloud will clear out, some variable cloudiness will likely develop as things warm up a bit in the afternoon, leading to a bit of a mixed sky through the day. The low temperature will dip into the mid-single digits on Sunday night.

Before that happens, though, we’ll have two beautiful late-September days to enjoy!

Sunny, Mild Weekend Ahead

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Plenty of sunshine is on tap for the coming weekend throughout the Red River Valley thanks to a developing southwesterly flow of mild, dry air developing through the coming days. As warmer air pushes into the region, temperatures will climb to summer-like values by Sunday with highs reaching the mid-20’s.

Today’s post will be quite short thanks to a distinct shortage of weather to talk about. Today’s weather will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure moving across Southern Manitoba, bringing mainly sunny skies and seasonal daytime highs near the 17 or 18°C mark. There will be a little bit of high cloud skirting the U.S. border as a disturbance moves through, but otherwise, mainly sunny skies will be seen through the Red River Valley. Tonight, expect temperatures to drop to the mid-single digits under clear skies.

Heading into the weekend, a southwesterly flow of warmer air will develop over the region. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20’s with a light southwesterly wind through the valley. A bit of cloud will show up in the afternoon, but overall it will be quite a nice day. Overnight lows on Saturday night will be quite a bit warmer than Friday night, dropping only to around the 10-12°C with the cloud clearing out overnight. Sunday will be a gorgeous day with daytime highs climbing into the mid-20’s under mainly sunny skies. Winds will be a little bit breezy out of the south. Expect overnight lows in the low teens once again on Sunday night.

Mild & Dry Weather Continues Into Next Week

Relatively mild weather is expected to continue into next week and beyond with seasonal or warmer temperatures expected and little precipitation on the horizon.

CPC 8-14 Day Outlook - Issued 17 Sept. 2015
The latest 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook from the CPC shows a high probability of above-normal temperatures through the September 25 – October 1 period.

Persistent troughing off west coast of North America is forecast to develop over the coming week, which is often favourable for us here in Southern Manitoba thanks to the southwesterly flow that develops in response. As the large trough develops, the result will be a milder flow of drier air, bringing above-seasonal temperatures to the region. All in all, it means we’ll have a “second summer” of sorts throughout the last half of September, so get out and enjoy!