Elsewhere in Weather News: October 11th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Two Dangerous Storms Spin Up

Notable activity has expanded from the tropical waters of the Western Pacific into the Bay of Bengal over the past week. We mentioned in last week’s EIWN that typhoon Vongfong could be a threat to Japan sometime this week – this has since become a reality. Formerly known as super typhoon Vongfong, typhoon Vongfong took aim at the Japanese island of Okinawa early this morning. Packing sustained winds of 140km/h which gusted to over 200km/h, the storm caused power outages to 27,000 residents and some locations on the island reported over 200mm of rain.

News agencies in the region report 20 injuries as of Saturday morning but thankfully no deaths from the storm. Vongfong is expected to curve northeast and slowly transition to an extratropical storm, but not before it brings significant rainfall to Japan’s main islands. This could be bad news, especially for the mountainous regions, as this is the second storm to hit Japan in the span of a week. With already saturated ground, these regions are more prone to landslides.

Cyclone Hudhud Develops

The second tropical storm is cyclone Hudhud which spun up only a few days ago. With sea surface temperatures approaching the 30°C mark in the Bay of Bengal, Hudhud quickly became a “very severe cyclonic storm” as classified by India’s Meteorological Department. As of Saturday morning Hudhud was 200 kilometres offshore of India with sustained winds of 205km/h.

Visakhapatnam radar image of cyclone Hudhud Saturday morning. Outer bands are already affecting India's coast and the eye is visible offshore. (Source: India Met Department)
Visakhapatnam radar image of cyclone Hudhud Saturday morning. Outer bands are already affecting India’s coast and the eye is visible offshore. (Source: India Met Department)

The evacuation of 150,000 people was underway along the coast because a significant storm surge of up to 1.8 metres is expected along the coast. Hudhud is forecast to make landfall overnight tonight just southwest of Visakhapatnam and continue inland, where it will die off, but not before dumping significant amounts of rain. The hardest hit areas can expect over 250mm of rain.

Warm, Windy Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

Southern Manitoba will continue to see a gradual improvement temperature-wise, and even start creeping into the above normal temperature range this weekend as a southerly flow kicks in. The one caveat is that winds will be fairly strong on Saturday and Sunday, so hold onto your hats!

Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Friday
10°C / 2°C
Becoming mainly sunny late in the morning

High pressure to the southeast will make for calm conditions today, with mostly clear conditions and slightly below seasonal temperatures. Throughout the day the ridge will continue to shift eastward, making way for the next system arriving this weekend. With most of the cloud clearing out by late morning, giving way to sunshine it should turn out to be a fairly nice day with a tinge of chill in the air, as temperatures approach the 10°C mark. By the time Friday night rolls around, strong southerly winds will start to pick up as the next low pressure approaches to our north – a tight gradient between the high to our southeast and the low to our northwest will be in place.

Saturday
14°C / 7°C
Starting off sunny, possible afternoon cloud

Saturday looks to start off with plenty of sunshine but the downside will be the windy conditions. Winds will continue to gust throughout the day but temperatures will manage to climb to the low to mid-teens across Southern Manitoba. With that said, there is a chance for some stratus to move in from North Dakota in the early afternoon which means we might not heat out completely. The low Saturday night will be fairly mild thanks to some cloud in the region keeping things warm as well as the southerly flow staying in place – lows will be well above the freezing mark.

Sunday
15°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy

By Sunday morning winds will have shifted to the northwest due to a cold front sweeping through the region in the morning. Although winds won’t be as strong as Saturday, they will continue to be gusty behind the cold front. Clouds are expected to linger throughout the day but there won’t be any significant precipitation. The temperatures will remain fairly warm, near average values – low teens are expected. Sunday night the low is will drop to the single digits, however, temperatures won’t drop below freezing.

Long Range

The Climate Prediction Centre as well as a few weather models show temperatures staying above normal for a good part of the beginning of next week with another low pressure system making its way across the Prairies and drawing in warm air ahead of it.

Gradual Improvement In Store

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will ever so slowly improve in Winnipeg over the next few days as the persistent low pressure system over Northern Ontario that has kept us locked in a cold northwesterly flow over the past several days begins to weaken and move off to the north. It will be a slow process, though, so for now hope will sit right on the horizon while Winnipeggers work through a few more cool days.

Wednesday
7°C / -2°C
Cloudy with sunny breaks

Thursday
8°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy

Friday
10°C / 1°C
Mainly sunny

Gradual warming will take place over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure slowly works its way into the province from the northwest, bringing with it not warmer air, but sunshine, which should help things get warmer than they have been over the past few days. Today, though, will see gusty northwesterly winds and intermittent sunny breaks in what will otherwise be a fairly cloudy day. The temperature should climb to around 6 or 7°C, although it will likely be slow-going in getting to that point. Clearer skies tonight will bring a low around -2°C with frost.

Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy day as more cloud moves into the Red River Valley from the Interlake in our northwesterly flow. Temperatures may end up a tad bit warmer than today at 7 or 8°C and winds will ease off a little bit. Skies should clear tomorrow night with a low near 1°C.

Friday will be the first “nice” day seen in a while for Winnipeg; mainly sunny skies, light winds and a high near 10°C will break our spell of cold, windy and cloudy weather. Temperatures will drop to around the 1°C mark again on Friday night.

Warming for Thanksgiving Weekend

Warmer weather is on the way, however, for the weekend. A large low pressure system will drag warmer air into the province, helping highs climb into the mid-teens for both Saturday and Sunday. Skies are looking sunny for Saturday with mixed-to-cloudier skies on Sunday, but no precipitation is expected. Things may turn more unsettled on Monday as a low pressure system moves through the Interlake, but it’s too far out at this time to really say much for certain. We’ll have a full look at Thanksgiving weekend on Friday morning!

Cool Weather Continues

Brad Leave a comment

A large upper-level low pressure system over northern Ontario will bring us chilly weather to start the week. Unfortunately, this means below-normal temperatures and frequent opportunities for showers.

An upper low over Ontario will bring cool conditions to southern Manitoba this week
An upper low over Ontario will bring cool conditions to southern Manitoba this week

Monday

Monday
7°C / 2°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Today will be cool, cloudy, and breezy as that large upper-level low over Ontario brings a cool north-westerly flow to southern Manitoba. There will be a chance of showers throughout the day, as a band of light precipitation pushes down from the north.

Tuesday

Tuesday
7°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy

Tuesday’s weather will be very similar to today’s. Skies will once again be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers. Unfortunately, it will also remain breezy as that upper low to our east maintains a decent pressure gradient across Manitoba.

Wednesday

Wednesday
8°C / -3°C
Mix of sun and cloud

It looks like Wednesday’s weather may begin to see some improvement over the conditions from earlier in the week. Temperature won’t warm by much, but winds should be a bit lighter. The chance for showers looks to be gone on Wednesday, and we should even see some sunshine.

Long Range

The long range forecast isn’t looking all that great at this point. The current forecast calls for a surface high to build into Manitoba late this week as that nasty upper low finally moves off. This will likely mean sunnier skies, but also a good chance for some solid freezing nights, and relatively cool daytime temperatures. Models hint at a warming trend from next weekend into the following week, though it isn’t currently expected to be an extended warm-spell…but we shall see what actually happens!