Warmer-than-Seasonal Temperatures Continue

Although the second half of the week will see cooler temperatures than have been in place over the past 5 days, daytime highs will nonetheless still remain above the seasonal values near -2°C. Perhaps one of the biggest differences over the next few days will be that it will be significantly cloudier than seen over the past several days which will likely slow down the melting a little bit. Highs near or above 0°C will continue to keep the City of Winnipeg a slushy, sloppy mess, so don’t put away that spare bottle of windshield washer fluid yet!

A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.
A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day in Winnipeg with a chance for some non-accumulating light flurries as a weak warm front(fn) slides northeastwards through the region. After the passage of the front, there may be a rogue sunny break, but overall skies should remain mostly cloudy as temperatures climb to near +1°C with an easterly breeze. Cloud cover will thicken up tonight as the main support for the advancing low from Alberta begins pushing towards our region. Skies will be overcast tonight with temperatures remaining steady near 0°C.

Wednesday
+1°C / ⇒ 0°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of morning flurries

Thursday
5°C / -1°C
Cloudy; chance of evening showers or flurries

Friday
3°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Thursday will be an overcast day through the Red River Valley with light winds as a low pressure system tracks right across the region. Temperatures will be warmer – highs should be near 5°C – and no precipitation is expected through much of the day. Heading into the evening, a chance for some showers or flurries will spread into the Red River Valley alongside northwesterly winds to 20-30km/h behind the passage of a trough. The chance for some flurries will persist through the overnight period as temperatures drop to around -2°C.

Friday will be another mainly cloudy day. A few light flurries may linger into the morning hours, but in general most of the day will see no precipitation. Highs will climb to near +3°C with a chance for some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Skies will clear through the evening as we head to a low near -2 or -3°C.

Near-Seasonal In The Long-Range

This weekend looks to bring another surge of warmth to Southern Manitoba on Sunday that will push daytime highs into the upper single-digits, but looking further than that, near-seasonal temperatures are expected. This translates to daytime highs around the 0°C mark or so. The odd day here or there of slightly warmer-than-normal is possible, but all in all it appears that Winnipeg will be transitioning into a fairly dry, seasonal March pattern next week.

Fortunately, with daytime highs above 0°C many days and little snow expected, the erosion of the snowpack in the Red River Valley will continue over the coming week. With little snow expected, many regions in the valley could see snow-free conditions by the end of the weekend. This is particularly significant as areas of snow-free ground will warm up significantly more than snow-covered ground. As we head into the coming weeks and warmer and warmer air begins moving in, it won’t be uncommon to see 10°C temperature differences over short distances based solely on snow-cover.

After the bone-chilling February experienced in Winnipeg, there are no complaints to be had with how March has unfolded so far and looks to continue!

The Melt Begins

The spring snow melt will begin in earnest this week as temperatures soar to above-seasonal values.

Monday will be above-seasonal as a mild westerly flow moves across the Prairies
Monday will be above-seasonal as a mild westerly flow moves across the Prairies

Monday

Monday
5°C / -2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be well above-seasonal with high temperatures reaching into the mid single digits. We’ll see skies that are a mixture of sun and cloud as some mid and upper cloud streams through from the north-west. Since there will be a lot of snow melting, some fog patches may develop overnight due to the increase in moisture. It will most certainly be another bad day if you happen to be made of ice!

Tuesday

Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny

Tuesday will see similar conditions to Monday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid single digits with a westerly wind. Skies should be mainly sunny making for yet another beautiful day.

Wednesday

Wednesday
3°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy

Some clouds will roll in for Wednesday, but temperatures will remain mild. Highs should be in the low to mid single digits under mainly cloudy conditions. We may even see a light rain or snow shower, but accumulations will be minimal. Wednesday will be a gloomier day, but warm nonetheless.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look very good. Models suggest that we will see above-seasonal temperatures stick around until at least mid-March. Given the warm weather expected this week, it’s likely that most of our snow will disappear quite quickly. Once the snow is gone the ground will be less reflective, allowing more sunlight to be absorbed, giving us systematically warmer temperatures. Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it!

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 7th, 2015

Winter Storm Races across Southern, Midwest US

This past week a strong late season winter storm made its way across the southern and east-central parts of the United States bringing with it all kinds of precipitation: rain, snow, ice pellets and freezing rain. An Arctic front pushing south across the region was the culprit for the mixed precipitation types. Warm air was able to ride over the cooler air racing south near the surface which made for a melting layer above ground and able to melt/partly melt the precipitation. Before it reached the ground the precipitation encountered below freezing temperatures once again which resulted in the freezing rain, or ice pellets if the melting layer was not as deep.

Sounding from Little Rock, AR show a melting layer with below-freezing temperatures closer to the surface.  Black line is the 0°C isotherm.
Sounding from Little Rock, AR show a melting layer with below-freezing temperatures closer to the surface. Black line is the 0°C isotherm.

Large traffic jams on the freeways due to accidents, school closures and power outages were the result of the storm and 13 deaths across several states were directly related to the storm. Impressive and unusual snow amounts for this time of the year were recorded anywhere from Dallas, Texas to Lexington, Kentucky. Here are a few impressive amounts recorded from the storm, provided by the National Weather Service:

  • Lexington, KY: two-day total of 43.4cm (all-time two day record)
  • Tupelo, MS: one-day total of 18.5cm (second snowiest day on record)
  • Dallas, TX: storm total of 8.9cm
[map type=”terrain” autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Lexington[/pin] [pin]Tupelo[/pin] [pin]Dallas[/pin] [/map]

No more snow is expected in the near future, but record-breaking cold temperatures followed last night. Warmer and closer to normal temperatures are on the way for next week as a pattern change takes place and colder air remains locked up further north.

Warmth Arrives For The Weekend

The wait is over: the warmer weather has arrived. Today will mark the first day of a huge swell of warm air spreading eastwards across the Prairies over the next week that will bring seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures to the region. The warmer weather will be joined by a couple chances for flurries over the next few days as well thanks to multiple weak disturbances rippling along the edge of the warmer air.

Friday
-3°C / -10°C
Increasing cloudiness; a few evening flurries

Saturday
-2°C / -8°C
Mixed skies with a chance of evening flurries

Sunday
0°C / -4°C
Mixed skies

Today will start off sunny but see increasing cloud as temperatures will climb to around -3 or -2°C this afternoon. A weak low pressure system moving through the Interlake will bring the potential of flurry activity through the Red River Valley as it passes this evening, but any amounts from the system would be minimal. Temperatures will drop to around -10°C tonight.

Saturday will bring mixed skies with temperatures once again climbing towards the -2°C mark under mixed skies. Another low tracking through the region will bring another chance for some very light flurry activity through the late afternoon & evening hours. Expect an overnight low near -8°C.

Sunday will be the warmest day of the next few with temperatures climbing to the freezing mark. Skies will likely be mixed with somewhat breezy northwesterly winds to 20-30km/h. Sunday night will bring a balmy low of around -4°C.

Warm Weeks Ahead

NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast (issued 12Z March 5, 2015)
NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Fortunately for us, the warm weather looks like it’s going to stick around for a while. The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing a decent probability of above-normal temperatures while only a brief mid-week cool-down looks on the cards for next week.

With the relatively low amount of snow on the ground, we may be heading into positively spring-like weather!